The Heisman Trophy picture remains quarterback-heavy with a tight second tier behind the co-favorites following Week 3 of the college football season.
Prediction markets offer a snapshot of who is leading the race. Here are the top 10 contenders and the factors most likely to move each profile.
Will one of these guys take the trophy or will a dark horse surge as the season progresses? Comment with your predictions below!
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma’s schedule gives Mateer multiple high-visibility checkpoints (October rivalry game, November stretch with conference implications). The case is straightforward: keep the turnover rate low, sustain an above-average explosive-pass rate, and pair counting stats with wins over ranked opponents.
- Heisman Chances: 12%
Carson Beck, QB, Miami Hurricanes
If Miami stays in the ACC title chase, Beck’s efficiency profile—quick processing, high completion rate, and limited negatives—translates well to voters and markets. A strong overall record plus one marquee performance in a national window would separate him from the pack.
- Heisman Chances: 12%
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon Ducks
Oregon’s tempo and spacing create favorable reads and explosive opportunities; Moore’s job is to keep the interception rate down as competition ramps up. If the Ducks track toward the playoff while his adjusted yards per attempt trends upward, his probability typically tightens.
- Heisman Chances: 9%
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
The non-QB path is narrow, but Smith can remain viable with a Biletnikoff-level profile: high yards per route run, multi-TD games, and impact in high-leverage moments. Ohio State’s late-season slate provides the exposure a receiver candidate needs.
- Heisman Chances: 7%
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M Aggies
Reed’s case hinges on SEC wins and clean situational performance—third-down conversion, red-zone TD rate, and ball security. If A&M sustains a top-10 offense while minimizing negative plays, his probability has room to climb.
- Heisman Chances: 6%
Devon Dampier, QB, Utah Utes
Utah’s identity (defense, field position, run game) can suppress raw volume, so Dampier’s margin is in efficiency and high-leverage runs. A headline win paired with a low rate of turnover-worthy plays keeps him viable into November.
- Heisman Chances: 5%
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama Crimson Tide
For Simpson, the focus is drive quality rather than yardage totals: maintain explosive-pass rate without spikes in sacks or giveaways. Alabama re-entering the SEC’s top tier is a prerequisite for any meaningful surge.
- Heisman Chances: 5%
Arch Manning, QB, Texas Longhorns
Manning needs locked-in QB1 snaps plus production against ranked defenses. If Texas sustains top-10 scoring and he posts efficient explosives (not just volume), both voters and pricing models will respond quickly.
- Heisman Chances: 5%
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU Tigers
LSU offers a high ceiling if the vertical passing game remains intact. The key proof points: stable yards per attempt against quality opponents and mistake-free finishes in close SEC contests.
- Heisman Chances: 5%
Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia’s win profile keeps Stockton in range, but he needs more than caretaker usage. A visible uptick in explosive passes and a December statement (conference title game performance) is the realistic path from fringe odds to contention.
- Heisman Chances: 3%
