The 2025 AL MVP is shaping up as one of the tightest in years, with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh trading blows.
Judge dominates rate stats. Raleigh made history with 60 home runs as a catcher. Both have the numbers, but only one gets the trophy.
Aaron Judge: The Case for Consistency
- Elite batting average, OBP, slugging, and WAR.
- Two-time MVP with media weight and precedent.
- New York stage magnifies his season.
- Narrative: pure offensive dominance and reliability.
Cal Raleigh: The Historic Milestone
- First catcher in history with 60 HR.
- Power-heavy profile leads RBIs and total bases.
- Mariners’ playoff surge amplifies his role.
- Narrative: catcher breaks records, carries Seattle.
Betting Markets & Odds
- Early season: Judge runaway favorite.
- Late September: ESPN BET still had Judge at –350, Raleigh at +200.
- Recent headlines tilt toward Raleigh’s 60 HR feat, but markets remain Judge-heavy.
Voter Dynamics
- 30 BBWAA voters split across AL cities.
- Judge appeals to WAR/OBP analysts.
- Raleigh appeals to narrative-driven voters, especially West Coast.
- Ballot math favors Judge if Raleigh doesn’t sweep first-place votes.
Historical Parallels
- Mike Trout 2014: voters rewarded all-around dominance.
- Joe Mauer 2009: voters embraced positional uniqueness.
- Lesson: voters bend when a milestone feels historic.
Scenario 1: Judge Holds Court
- Judge wins ~18–20 first-place votes.
- Raleigh secures strong 2nd/3rd place totals.
- Judge takes MVP with ~380–400 points.
- Probability: ~62%.
Scenario 2: Raleigh’s Narrative Wins Out
- Raleigh rides milestone momentum.
- 16–18 first-place votes push him over Judge.
- Final tally favors catcher’s record-breaking power.
- Probability: ~35%.
Scenario 3: The Photo Finish
- Both split ~15 first-place votes.
- Decision comes down to 2nd/3rd place ballots.
- Could swing by <20 points.
- Probability: ~5–10%.
Prediction: Judge, Narrowly
Aaron Judge is still the favorite, but Cal Raleigh’s 60 HR season makes this the closest MVP fight of the decade. Expect Judge to edge it — but Raleigh’s case will leave lasting echoes in the MVP conversation.
