The battle for Virginia’s Attorney General seat has turned into one of the tightest, most unpredictable races in the country. With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, Republican incumbent Jason Miyares and Democratic challenger Jay Jones are locked in a statistical tie — a fight defined by money, messaging, and controversy.
Recent polling from Clarity Campaign Labs, conducted October 14–17, shows the two virtually even among likely voters, within the survey’s ±3 percent margin of error. Aggregated data from multiple sources, including the Wason Center and Wikipedia polling averages, put Miyares at roughly 46.7 percent and Jones at 44.2 percent — a slim 2.5-point edge for the incumbent. In other words, it’s anyone’s race.
Yet beneath those numbers lies a deep imbalance in resources. Miyares, who became the state’s first Latino Attorney General when he was elected in 2021, has leveraged his incumbency and party backing into a commanding financial advantage. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Miyares has raised about $9.3 million and still holds nearly $7 million in cash on hand. Jones, by comparison, has raised around $4.9 million and retains just over $1.2 million.
That cash disparity is widening. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) announced this month it was doubling its investment in Miyares’ campaign, pouring in another $2.5 million for last-minute ad buys. Democratic groups have answered with a late push of their own, but they’re playing catch-up in a race that could determine which party keeps control of Virginia’s last statewide GOP office.
Leaked texts shake up race
Jones, a former delegate from Norfolk and a rising Democratic star, had hoped to make this contest about reform and fairness — until early October, when a personal controversy exploded into the headlines. Leaked text messages from 2022 showed Jones using violent language to describe then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his family. The messages triggered immediate backlash, allowing Republicans to paint Jones as reckless and unfit for office. Miyares’ campaign quickly seized on the scandal with a $1.5 million advertising blitz across Virginia’s airwaves and digital platforms.
The fallout was immediate. Polls that once showed Jones leading narrowly flipped in Miyares’ favor, transforming what had looked like a Democratic momentum wave into a deadlock. Even some Democrats privately admit the incident was a “self-inflicted wound” that derailed Jones’ narrative about restoring public trust in the Attorney General’s office.
Still, this is Virginia — a state famous for ticket-splitters and last-minute swings. Miyares’ incumbency gives him institutional advantages, but Jones has a motivated base in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia’s Democratic strongholds. And with the governor’s race tightening, there’s a chance down-ballot turnout could benefit him if Democrats surge late.
For Republicans, holding this seat is critical. Losing the Attorney General’s office would erase their only statewide foothold and shift Virginia back toward blue dominance. For Democrats, a Jones victory would symbolize momentum heading into 2026, when national control of Congress could hinge on voter sentiment from states like Virginia.
Prediction markets and campaign insiders currently rate Miyares as a narrow favorite, with roughly 55-60 percent odds of retaining his seat. Jones sits at around 40-45 percent, depending on turnout assumptions. But with both campaigns flooding the airwaves and more debates looming, even small shifts in voter sentiment could swing the outcome.
Bottom line: The Virginia Attorney General race is a pure toss-up — an expensive, high-stakes duel between an embattled incumbent and a wounded challenger. Each has something to lose, everything to prove, and only two weeks left to make their case before voters decide who will hold one of the most consequential legal offices in the South.
