Trade on Sports Prediction Markets: Current Odds and Markets

How is sports betting at Kalshi different from sportsbooks?

You trade against people, not the house. Kalshi is an exchange where users post bids/asks; the platform doesn’t win by users losing. Its profits come from small trading fees.

• There is a caveat: For some of Kalshi’s NFL betting needs, the company outsources market-making to institutional market makers, which many argue negates the peer-to-peer feature touted by prediction markets.

Transparent odds: A price of 63¢ implies a 63% probability. No American odds conversion required (though you can change your setting to resemble sportsbook odds).

• Kalshi’s one-cent pricing ticker, however, comes with limitations. For example, if you’re looking at longshot futures, implied odds are maxed out at +9900 (1¢) with the next price point (2¢) at only +4900. That omits a huge range of payouts.

Live trading and easy exits. You can sell at any time before settlement to lock profit or limit your risk. There’s no need to ride every ticket to the final whistle, and the live cash outs are often much more fair than those provided by sportsbooks.

• Cashing out requires liquidity on the other side, but so far, there has been plenty of live trading on Kalshi’s sports markets.

Fees vs. vig. Instead of vig baked into the lines (e.g. -110), Kalshi charges a small fee on expected earnings and (for certain sports markets) a reduced maker fee if your resting order gets filled.

• The fee formula is complex and is subject to change, making it difficult to know exactly what to expect. In some cases, the fees are just as expensive as the vig you find at sportsbooks.

No pushes. Because these are binary contracts, there are no pushes on Kalshi (but this may vary by platform).

• The line you trade is always at a half-point on spreads/totals, resolving cleanly to $1 or $0, unless you cash out before the market resolves.