On Tuesday, Sept. 24, Polymarket’s total trading volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential election winner surpassed $1 billion, highlighting the growing interest in political betting.
The milestone comes as Polymarket is in talks to raise in over $50 million in new capital, linked to a possible token launch. A significant influx of money is expected to be traded on the decentralized prediction market platform as Election Day approaches.
Polymarket’s presidential election winner market favors Kamala Harris to win. Her chances sit at 51% while Trump’s are at 48%. Harris’ lead in Polymarket’s popular vote winner market is even higher at 75%. However, the popular vote market only has about a quarter of the money in it as the outright election winner.
Polymarket will settle its presidential election winner market based on the candidate declared the winner by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If these sources disagree, the market will be settled based on who is inaugurated. Polymarket even has a market on whether the presidential election will be certified on Jan. 6, with the current forecast showing an 85% chance of on-time certification.
U.S election betting under fire
Polymarket’s trading milestone comes at a precarious time for prediction markets that want to offer election contracts to U.S. customers. PredictIt and Kalshi are actively contesting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) rulings that ban election markets.
The CFTC has become increasingly hostile to election betting. During oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit Court, the CFTC’s counsel didn’t acknowledge any legitimate risk that businesses might use election contracts to hedge against. In 2022, the CFTC also rescinded the no-action letter that PredictIt built its business on back in 2014.
Earlier this summer, the CFTC warned Polymarket and other “offshore” exchanges that they will use their enforcement if those exchanges break the law by providing exposure to US customers.
Kalshi and PredictIt have argued their election markets serve legitimate needs. PredictIt focuses on academic research and election forecasting while Kalshi makes the case that it can help businesses and individuals hedge against political risk.
Meanwhile, election bettors are flocking to Polymarket to place their trades. Polymarket has shown not only how large the market for election trading is, but also how far election traders will go to place their bets.
