As New York City barrels toward its final mayoral debate, the race has turned into something of a political standoff — part spectacle, part strategy test. The question dominating City Hall chatter this week: Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?
The Guardian Angels founder, talk-radio veteran, and perennial outsider is under growing pressure from his own party to step aside. The reasoning is simple arithmetic: Sliwa’s presence in the race could split the anti-progressive vote and hand the election to Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani. But the man himself has made one thing abundantly clear — he’s not going anywhere.
‘I’m not dropping out.’
“I am not dropping out. Under no circumstance,” Sliwa told reporters Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025. “They’ve offered me money to quit. I told them where to shove it.” His defiance came after billionaire supermarket magnate John Catsimatidis — a major Republican donor and longtime Sliwa ally — publicly called for him to bow out “right now” to boost Andrew Cuomo’s odds against Mamdani.
That statement landed like a grenade in Republican circles. Catsimatidis represents a faction of the city’s business community that sees Cuomo as the only candidate capable of winning back moderates. Their logic is straightforward: with Sliwa in, Mamdani’s double-digit lead holds. Without him, polling narrows to a four-point race, within the margin of error. The Wall Street Journal reported that private GOP surveys show Sliwa drawing just enough support from independents and Staten Island conservatives to spoil Cuomo’s chances — a dynamic that could decide City Hall’s next occupant.
But despite that math, dropping out isn’t simple. New York’s ballot deadlines have already passed, meaning Sliwa’s name will appear regardless of what he does next. Even a withdrawal announcement wouldn’t erase him from contention; it would only cement his campaign as a cautionary tale. And for a man whose brand is built on refusing to back down — from street fights in the Bronx to on-air brawls at WABC Radio — that’s not a look he’s willing to accept.
Inside City Hall and across the five boroughs, operatives are split. Some see Sliwa’s staying power as stubbornness; others call it loyalty to the rank-and-file voters who still see him as authentic. “Curtis connects with people who think the city forgot about them,” said one GOP strategist familiar with the campaign. “He’s not playing the donor game.”
Stakes are rising
Cuomo’s allies privately admit that without Sliwa’s withdrawal, Mamdani could cruise to victory. Meanwhile, Democratic insiders are gleeful — the longer Republicans fight among themselves, the easier their path becomes.
Today’s night’s debate, the second and final of the cycle, could tip that balance. If Sliwa performs strongly, he could re-energize his base and justify staying in. If he’s overshadowed by Cuomo or ridiculed by Mamdani, the chorus demanding his exit will grow deafening.
For now, the odds of Sliwa dropping out before Election Day sit around 20% to 25% on prediction markets. — not impossible, but increasingly unlikely. What’s more probable is that he rides the chaos all the way out, hoping to turn defiance into relevance.
In the end, Sliwa’s real gamble may not be about winning. It’s about proving that in a city famous for comebacks, even a long shot can force the powerful to squirm. Whether that’s bravery or futility will play out under the bright lights of tomorrow night’s debate.
