Trade on Politics: Live Prediction Market Odds
See real-time odds for a range of political prediction markets from what Trump will say this month to what bills will pass
- December 29, 2025
Betting on politics is becoming a major American past time, thanks to the rise of regulated prediction markets. Everyday people can now put real money on their political predictions like what Trump will say this month, who will be the next to leave the president’s Cabinet, what bills will pass, and a wide selection of other questions.
Below, we provide an overview of some of the top political prediction markets to trade on right now, as well as tips for where to trade.
Next U.S. president odds
Billions of dollars were bet on the last presidential election, and odds on the 2028 presidential election are expected to garner even more action across prediction markets and sportsbooks. Traders can also bet on who they think will each party’s nomination, along with who will be chosen as vice presidential candidates.
2026 Midterm Odds
If you’re looking for something with shorter shelf life, you can bet on odds for the 2026 midterms. Democrats have recently taken a big lead, according to traders, for which party will control the House. There other 2026 election markets, too, such as who will control the House.
Tips for trading political predictions markets
Trading on politics is new for most people. Here are a few tricks of the trade, so to speak, for beginners.
- Start small. First thing’s first. The most important thing is to start slowly as you learn the platforms. Trading politics on prediction markets won’t look much tradition betting. So start slow as you adjust to the exchange format, which includes order books, prices (rather than odds), limit orders, etc.
- Find your niche. If you are particularly familiar with a certain region, state, or city, then leverage your expertise by focusing on the markets and races you are most familiar with. Remember, there are hundreds of political markets, not just the three shown above.
- Monitor news. You will need to keep a steady pulse on the news, beyond the headlines that are on television. Find social media accounts to follow, set Google alerts, and be ready to reach quickly as news breaks before it hits the airwaves.
- Read the fine print. By the fine print, I mean the market’s rules and resolution criteria. This will show you how the outcomes are determined. Prediction market questions aren’t trivial, and the way the are framed, are far from trivial. How someone interprets a question or a definition may be different than how the platform is actually treating it — but most confusion can be avoided if you read the rules first.
For more tips, check out our guide for how to bet on politics.
Where to trade politics
Below are the best sites and platforms for political trading, for beginners and experienced traders alike.
- Kalshi – With by far the most robust political prediction markets and liquidity, it’s tough to argue that there’s a better site for political trading than Kalshi right now. They already marquee primaries listed for the 2026 midterms, along with daily mention markets covering politics. The also do a great job of listing foreign elections, most recently presidential elections in Chile, Ireland, and Honduras. Kalshi hs an app that is making progress in terms of UX, but desktop continues to be an easier place to trade.
- PredictIt – The OG political prediction markets whose origins trace all the way back to 2014. Seriously. They paved the way for political traders, but have fallen to the wayside as Kalshi has surged to prominence. Still, there are markets and trading activity to be found on PredictIt, and they have an excellent newsletter that keeps traders in the know.
- Manifold – If you want to test your wits but are hesitant to risk real money, Manifold is the site for you. Manifold is a play-money prediction market, making it a great way to learn how to trade before stepping into real-money sites. One of the things I love most is that you can create your own markets and questions, allowing to trade truly on anything. That includes markets for war, terrorism, conspiracies, and scandals that you won’t find elsewhere.
With that said, there are many more prediction market platforms coming soon that will undoubtedly have politics to trade. Polymarket recently returned to the U.S. with only sports, but other categories, including politics, will follow. Meanwhile, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts are also attempting to compete with political markets offerings.
