The cryptocurrency industry witnessed a major milestone on July 14, 2025: Bitcoin (BTC), the largest digital asset by market capitalization, reached an all-time high surpassing $122,000. A prediction market on Kalshi is already asking not if, but when BTC will reach $150K, a market that has attracted more than $1.6 million in trading volume.
Bitcoin’s ATH came ahead of Crypto Week, an event in US’s crypto regulatory landscape that saw the passing of three key crypto bills: the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Senate’s GENIUS Act (signed into law on July 18).
However, following BTC’s impressive climb, the token has entered a consolidation phase, currently hovering in a resistance zone between $117,000 and $120,000. Amid clearer crypto regulations in the US and a more mature market, investors and industry experts are speculating whether the token could reach $150,000 by end of year.
BTC price predictions based on prediction markets
While there is no overwhelming certainty for an immediate surge in the token’s price, collective bets on prediction markets indicate a price breakthrough could be coming in the following months.
An open market on Kalshi sees the most likely outcome for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 is before March 2026, with 60¢ (61%) voting “yes.” This suggests a strong market consensus for the following year, rather than a speedier end-of-year surge.
A separate betting market on Kalshi shows a 74% (74¢) probability of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 this year. The market’s probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year is significantly lower at 39% (40¢).
A number of open bets on Polymarket also offer insights into Bitcoin’s potential 2025 price trajectory. The most bullish outlook, standing at 75¢ (74%), sees BTC reaching $130,000 by end of year. This is followed by a target of $150,000 at 45¢ (44%), and $200,000 at 16¢ (16%).
Meanwhile a different Polymarket market speculates that Bitcoin could embark on a bearish trend and fall below $100,000 before 2026 with a 54% probability (55¢).
Expert takes: BTC $150K hinges on sustained capital inflows
While prediction markets and general crypto sentiment remain bullish, Bitunix’s house analyst, Dean Chen, told Prediction News that for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by end of year, the token would need to see “sustained capital inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions, both of which remain uncertain.”
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, meaning their value can be affected by a number of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
According to Chen, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory is a critical variable in predicting Bitcoin’s future price movements.
“Markets had anticipated aggressive cuts earlier this year, but persistent inflation and solid labor data have pushed those expectations back. Should the Fed begin easing decisively in Q4, we could see a resurgence in risk appetite and renewed institutional flows into crypto. Until then, monetary policy uncertainty continues to dampen conviction.”
Expert takes: The case for $150K
A more bullish price analysis came from Ryan Lee, a crypto analyst at Bitget Research.
According to Lee, Bitcoin is likely to reach $150,000 by the end of the year amid higher Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows that continue to drive institutional demand, thus boosting BTC’s price momentum.
Lee added that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year and in 2026 could fuel a “risk-on environment,” thus further pushing the BTC price.
“Technical indicators, including a bullish breakout above $120,000, further suggest strong potential for this target,” said Lee.
