Just as they have done with their traditional sports betting products, some top U.K. gambling companies are looking at different ways to potentially enter the U.S. prediction market space.
Some of these overseas companies have experience operating betting exchanges in the U.K., Europe and elsewhere. Betting exchanges operate similarly to prediction markets, which could make the technological transition smooth. U.K. betting exchanges are driven by sports markets, but, like many top U.S. prediction market platforms, often also offer markets related to things like politics, culture and entertainment.
Betting exchange experience is far from the lone qualifier for U.S. entry. Prediction markets in the U.S. are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and seeking CFTC approval can be a complex and lengthy process. But there are other ways U.K. companies could gain entry without directly applying for CFTC approval.
This year, a few U.K. companies — or domestic companies with U.K. ties — have addressed the prospects of bringing prediction markets to the U.S., usually by simply stating they’re keeping an eye on growth and other developments in the prediction market space without making a firm commitment.
These U.K. (and U.K.-adjacent) companies, particularly ones with ties to U.S. sports betting operations, are likely looking at ways to compete with standalone prediction market platforms offering sports event outcome markets. Prediction markets are a way to gain entry into bigger states, like California and Texas, that currently do not have legalized sports betting.
Flutter brings betting exchange employees to U.S.
Flutter Entertainment, headquartered in Ireland and New York City, is the parent company of top U.S. sports betting operator FanDuel. Flutter also operates the U.K.-based Betfair, one of the leading betting exchanges in the world that was briefly available in New Jersey before exiting in 2020 after failing to gain traction and substantial liquidity.
During Flutter Entertainment’s Q1 2025 earnings call, CEO Peter Jackson was non-committal about attempting to launch a prediction market product or integrate one into the FanDuel Sportsbook. But Jackson did say Flutter was monitoring the situation and even brought some Betfair employees to the U.S. “to help us evaluate the opportunity.”
BetMGM/Entain won’t be “first mover” into prediction markets
BetMGM, a top U.S. sports betting and iCasino operator, is a joint venture between MGM Resorts and global sports betting and gaming company Entain, which is headquartered in the Isle of Man (technically not in the U.K., but just off the coast). For several years, Entain operated the Betdaq betting exchange, which is primarily available in the U.K. and Europe.
During a recent earnings call, BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt hinted that the company is working on possibly getting into prediction markets, but said he had nothing to announce. Greenblatt said BetMGM and Entain are “monitoring this very, very closely,” but he said BetMGM would not be a “first mover” into the prediction market space.
Some of BetMGM’s hesitation, Greenblatt suggested, is due to ongoing court battles with state regulators, many of whom are looking to prohibit access to prediction platforms’ sports event markets in their jurisdictions. BetMGM relies on good relationships with those gaming regulators for its sports betting and iGaming products, so it will likely wait to see how those cases resolve before pursuing a prediction market push.
Smarkets seeking CFTC approval to bring betting exchange stateside
London-based Smarkets operates a popular betting exchange available in the U.K. and a few European countries. Smarkets previously entered the U.S. but eschewed its betting exchange model in favor of a more traditional sportsbook called SBK.
SBK failed to catch on and Smarkets paused plans for U.S. expansion. But last month Smarkets CEO Jason Trost said the company was exploring returning to the U.S. with a prediction market product. Smarkets is pursuing a U.S. entry by directly applying for Designated Contract Market (DCM) designation from the CFTC, which Trost estimates will take “about $2 million and two years.”
Galactic testing regulatory waters with SI Predict
Unlike some of the aforementioned companies, U.K. marketing firm Galactic doesn’t have a history in the gambling industry. But Galactic, in partnership with Sports Illustrated brand owner Authentic Brands Group, recently soft launched the crypto-fueled SI Predict. While apparently not seeking DCM designation, Galactic promotional materials frequently mention its “regulatory-compliant framework.”
Galactic, which is seeking similar media partnerships for further prediction market offerings, paused SI Predict operations on July 29 for upgrades. On July 25, Galactic announced its partnership with an unnamed Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), another CFTC designation for a person or company that solicits or accepts orders to buy or sell futures contracts. (BetMGM’s Greenblatt also mentioned partnership with an FCM as a possible prediction market entry point during the most recent earnings call.)
That still wouldn’t appear to fully satisfy CFTC requirements for offering prediction markets to the public, but perhaps could be a way to draw a “no action” letter from the CFTC. Additionally, Galactic independently registered with the National Futures Association, which the company says “underscores Galactic’s commitment to solidifying its position as a trusted leader in prediction markets.”
UK sports betting operators entered US early
These companies’ interest in prediction markets is reminiscent of how U.K. sports betting operators quickly turned their attention to the U.S. following the fall of PASPA in 2018.
With about a 10-year headstart, these companies already had the tech and experience to quickly adapt to U.S. markets, which offer huge revenue opportunities. Flutter acquired a controlling stake in FanDuel in 2018, while MGM teamed up with Entain that same year.
British sports betting company bet365 launched its sportsbook in New Jersey in 2019 and has had success, gradually and strategically launching in several other states ever since.
But not every successful U.K.-based operator has found it easy to grow their market share in the highly competitive U.S. sports betting landscape. After failing to garner much traction, Betfred recently announced the final step of its complete U.S. exit, and Betway parent company Super Group just made a similar announcement.
Legal challenges could temper urgency to enter US
Currently, the smoothest path to being able to offer prediction markets in the U.S. is to be granted DCM designation from the CFTC. That can be achieved by going through the full application process (a la Smarkets), but another option could be to partner with or purchase a platform already CFTC approved. Prediction market powerhouse Polymarket did just that with the acquisition of newly-CFTC-approved exchange and clearinghouse QCX, while DraftKings is reportedly exploring a purchase of Railbird Exchange, which gained CFTC approval in mid-June.
But whether these UK companies (particularly ones with U.S. sports betting connections) actively pursue entry into the U.S. prediction market landscape may depend on the outcome of the various legal challenges to sports prediction markets. A big reason to move into the U.S. prediction market space with CFTC approval is the ability to offer markets based on sports event outcomes, which have proven to be a major volume-driver at top U.S. platform Kalshi.
Kalshi currently offers sports markets in all 50 states. But if state and Native American tribal challenges are successful and CFTC-approved platforms are unable to offer sports markets in certain jurisdictions, the recent prediction market curiosity shown by some U.K. companies may be substantially tempered.
