President Trump’s seventh week included many surprises. He paused intelligence sharing to Ukraine, threatened Russia with sanctions, and reversed some of his most devastating tariffs. That was all before he topped the week off by creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt are each unique, but they all played a part in telling the story of Trump’s seventh week. Here’s what they settled, and here are the next markets to watch.
What did Trump say during his joint address to Congress?
Settlement Highlights: Some of the largest price movements were Trump saying “Greenland,” “Pam Bondi,” “Kamala,” and “mandate” three times. His failure to say AI, artificial intelligence, and ceasefire were roughly 80-cent movements, meaning those who bet ‘yes’ lost big, while those who bet ‘no’ earned as high as 400% returns.
Analysis: Trump’s joint address to Congress was more of a rally than a formal State of the Union (technically, the first such speech isn’t a formal State of the Union.) He taunted his Democratic opponents and celebrated his 2024 victory.
Mentioning that the United States would improve Greenland if it became a state and calling out his former opponent, Kamala Harris, were both instances of Trump’s bombast brushing over policy details.
Trump also managed to discuss Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza without mentioning the word “ceasefire.” He expressed a desire for peace with limited details about how wars in those countries would end, though details and clues about his ideal plans for those conflict areas.
What to Bet Next: On Friday, the New York Times published a report on Sam Bankman-Fried’s campaign to get a pardon from Trump. The article called the effort a “long-shot” and that “the push does not appear to have gained traction.” On Saturday, Kalshi’s odds of Bankman-Fried receiving a pardon from Trump in his first 100 days in office were 3%. The first 100 days end on April 30, so traders still have a few weeks to track this story.
How many senators voted to confirm Linda McMahon as secretary of education?
Price Settlement: The market settled at 52 or fewer senators voting to confirm McMahon as secretary of education.
Analysis: On Monday, the Senate confirmed McMahon 51-45. Four senators did not vote: Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Peter Welch (D-VT). Eliminating federal influence over education has been a long-standing goal of the conservative movement, so the vote was along party lines.
McMahon is aligned with Trump’s plan to abolish the Department of Education. She can’t abolish it herself, but she can eliminate staff and programs that perform the functions Trump’s administration most wants to target.
What to Bet Next: On Monday, March 9, the Senate is expected to vote on Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Trump’s nominee for secretary of labor. Senators voted 66-30 to advance her nomination to a final confirmation vote, placing her among Trump’s bipartisan nominees.
Chavez-DeRemer distanced herself from a pro-union bill she once supported, but her pro-union record from her congressional term is strong enough to push her through with bipartisan support. Traders still have time, but not much, to bet on her confirmation.
Ukraine Aid and Intelligence Frozen
Price: On Saturday, Polymarket traders gave Russia and Ukraine a 72% chance of reaching a ceasefire in 2025.
Settlement Terms: Polymarket defines a ceasefire for this market as “a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement.”
Analysis: Throughout the week, Trump halted financial aid to Ukraine then ceased intelligence sharing. Trump hoped to pressure Ukraine to accept the president’s terms for a ceasefire. On Friday, the New York Times reported that Trump was “strongly considering” sanctions and tariffs on Russia to pressure them into a ceasefire deal, too. The odds of a ceasefire are 12% higher than Sunday, March 2, so the market is responding to Trump’s pressures.
Which countries will impose tariffs on the United States before Q3 in 2025?
Price: On Saturday, the top three countries expected to tariff the United States by Q3 2025 were Mexico (73%), the European Union (62%), and Brazil (55%).
Settlement Terms: Both new tariffs and raised tariffs will resolve a country’s market to Yes.
Analysis: Trump made headlines when his tariffs against long-time allies Canada and Mexico went into effect at the beginning of March. The president made headlines again when he announced those tariffs would be paused for a month on Friday. Canada and China have already imposed and kept tariffs on the United States. It raises questions about which other countries could tariff the United States.
Mexico is the target of American tariffs, and Trump’s escalating rhetoric against the EU could also lead them to tariff the United States. Additionally, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian steel and aluminum, so a breakdown in negotiations could lead to tariffs from Brazil, too.
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve?
Price: On Saturday evening, Kalshi’s traders gave Trump a 60% chance of creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by 2026.
Settlement Terms: The national fund must consist of Bitcoin purchased by the United States government. It can’t be made of solely confiscated Bitcoin.
Analysis: On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. It would be made of Bitcoin confiscated from civil and criminal proceedings, a “budget-neutral” way to fund the reserve with 200,000 Bitcoin, but one that does not meet Kalshi’s resolution terms which require the federal government to hold the Bitcoin itself as it would a Treasury bond. Even though Trump has created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, whether it will satisfy Kalshi’s market terms remains an open question.
