Democrat Jay Jones has not withdrawn from the Virginia Attorney General race, but he certainly hurt his chances to be elected for the post.
The National Review published a story on Oct. 4 revealing text messages from August 2022 between Jones and Republican Chesterfield Delegate Carrie Coyner. In the messages, Jones mused about his wish that Virginia’s Republican House Speaker, Todd Gilbert, “gets two bullets to the head” and that his children “die in their mother’s arms.”
Jones’ odds plummeted in the wake of the scandal from a recent high of 88% on Oct. 1 to his current odds of 42%. His Republican challenger, incumbent Jason Miyares, saw his implied odds at Kalshi rise from 12% to a peak of 73% before settling around 61% with the election less than a week away.
Jay Jones still in the running
Jones’ text messages came at a time when political violence is a heightened concern across political lines. Earlier this year, two Minnesota lawmakers and their spouses were assassinated in Minnesota, and conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated at a public event in Utah last month.
These are just two recent occurrences that have brought the issue of politically-motivated violence into the national discourse, and Jones’ violent messages surfaced against this backdrop.
Still, Jones decided not to heed calls to drop out of the race, and it may come as a surprise to some that he’s still very much in the running, according to prediction markets. That said, a democratic sweep of the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races in Virginia is looking a lot less likely.
Margin of victory markets show a toss-up in Virginia AG race
Jones is behind in the polls by one point, and Kalshi traders expect an outcome close to that figure.
At time of writing, Miyares has a 20% chance of winning with a margin of victory under 2% and an 18% chance of winning by a 2-4% margin. Jones similarly has an 18% chance of winning by a margin of within 2%, but only a 13% chance of winning by 2-4%. That means prediction market traders are expecting a near toss-up come Election Day.
Jones’ deflated chances reflect the damage his text messages have caused to his campaign. The race wasn’t close before October when Jones was the overwhelming favorite. Kalshi didn’t even launch a market on a Democratic sweep until Oct. 6, after the text scandal unfolded.
Democratic sweep in Virginia now in doubt
Jones’ text messages didn’t only speak to an electorate and political class scarred by violence. They also increased the likelihood of a split ticket. Democrats could now presumably win the governor’s race and lieutenant governor’s races but lose the attorney general race.
Kalshi traders only give Democrats a 35% chance of sweeping all three statewide Virginia races at the time of this writing.
An October 27 poll showed Miyami one point ahead of Jones. While it’s within the margin of error, Jones is the only Democratic candidate who is currently trailing his Republican opponent in the polls and the prediction markets.
Meanwhile, Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a seven-point lead in recent polling and is now the runaway favorite in the VA governor race according to Kalshi markets. Spanberger is trading at 95¢ (94%) compared to Republican challenger Winsome Earle-Sears‘ current price of 6¢ (6%). Meanwhile, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi is two points ahead of Republican John Reid in the lieutenant governor race, but is trading as a 90% (91¢) favorite.
VA Attorney General race trading angle
By Matt Schmitto, PredictionNews Trading Analyst
Jones’ texts have no doubt hurt his election odds, but the questions is: by how much? I think the race is still much closer to a coin flip than current prediction markets odds suggest, which price the controversial Democratic candidate at only 42¢ (or in American odds, +138).
Last week’s Washington Post/Schar School poll showed Miyares and Jones tied at 46 percent support among likely voters. There’s also a recent Virginia Commonwealth University poll that shows Miyares leading Jones 45 percent to 42 percent.
One thing to keep in mind, however, is that what people say to pollsters is not necessarily how they will behave when they get into the voting booth when no one is watching.
For that reason, I think there’s plenty of value on Jones at his current price.
- My trade: Jones – ‘Yes’ (42¢)
- My prediction: Jones wins by 1%
