Even though there was only one panel scheduled to explicitly talk about them, prediction markets crept into discussions across a number of sessions at last week’s G2E (Global Gaming Expo).
However, there remains a significant awareness gap about this emerging industry among the majority of the gaming industry, including many of the exhibitors on the expo floor.
Of course, there’s a small group of people in gaming who have been enthusiastic about prediction markets and their promise for years. That group centers around Alex Kane, the CEO of Sporttrade, who has been a longtime critic of the traditional sportsbook model and began offering sports contracts in 2022 under state sports betting regulations.
Outside of that circle are the gaming journalists, analysts, and executives who recognize the issues (and potentially, opportunities) prediction markets are raising for the existing regulated gaming industry. Responsible gaming, double standards, and lobbying pushes arise from this cross-section.
The crazy thing is, if you leave the education hallway area, 75% of attendees don’t care about prediction markets, sports betting or iCasino. Their main concern is the latest slot machines, electronic table games, chairs, uniforms, and player management systems https://t.co/3npYTz51hs
— Steve Ruddock (@SteveRuddock) October 8, 2025
But the majority of the gaming industry lies on the outer circle. That includes the people Aggie (@blondiepredicts on X) spoke with on the expo floor who were focused on iGaming clients. Perhaps surprising to some, prediction markets weren’t on the radars of the majority of attendees.
G2E prediction market panel takeaways
Chris Cylke, Senior Vice President, Government Relations at the American Gaming Association, moderated the lone G2E panel on prediction markets. The panelists included:
- Dustin Gouker, Owner, Closing Line Consulting
- Jackie Johnson, Director, Arizona Department of Gaming
- Kevin King, Partner, Covington & Burling LLP
The panelists provided a thorough overview of Kalshi’s ongoing legal battles with states and the potential impact sports prediction markets could have on the gaming industry. Gouker gave some advice to states worried about prediction markets, specifically to be more proactive in efforts against them.
One of the most striking contrasts that stood out for me was how differently two camps of thinking can view the utility and social mission of prediction markets. Finance and crypto see prediction markets as transformative products, capable of curbing misinformation and empowering users. The speakers on stage, by contrast, framed them as gambling products stripped of the responsible gambling protections that set regulated gambling apart from offshore alternatives. In general, it was an accurate summation of how the gaming industry views prediction markets.
Also striking is how both sides remain equally determined to push for legal reforms that advance their conflicting visions.
Meanwhile, in crypto…
The week of G2E, Polymarket announced its $2 billion raise and updated $9 billion valuation. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan also disclosed two previous rounds of funding, one that took place earlier this year and another from early 2024. (He didn’t provide specific months.) Polymarket’s impending launch of its U.S. app and sports markets was another elephant in the room at G2E.
Also, I’d like to share the prior two rounds which were never announced.
Earlier this year, Founders Fund led a $150m round into Polymarket, valuing us at $1.2b. Also in this round was Ribbit, Valor, Point72 Ventures, SV Angel, 1789, 1confirmation, Blockchain Capital, Coinbase,…
— Shayne Coplan 🦅 (@shayne_coplan) October 7, 2025
The gambling industry may have its concerns about prediction markets, but the prediction market industry and its investors remain hyper-focused on growth in its boom years. Kalshi has expanded its sports contracts to include more player props as it improves its new parlay product. Perpetual futures, emerging crypto futures with no expiration dates, are a frequent topic of discussion among CFTC-regulated platforms and within the crypto community.
The largest crypto and finance companies are also racing to offer an “everything app” where everything from stocks to event contracts to sports wagers can be managed in the same app. It’s a goal that will inevitably conflict with the gambling industry’s insistence on responsible gambling protections and strict compliance with state gaming regulations.
Turning to San Francisco Tech Week
The day after G2E’s prediction market panel, I moderated a discussion about prediction markets at San Francisco Tech Week. My panelists included prediction market influencer Aggie (@blondiepredicts) and founder Henry Lau. Aggie coordinated the event and announced her Kalshi affiliate relationship on the morning of the panel. Lau is the founder of Skywalk, a liquidity provider that aims to match trades across prediction market platforms.
The panel discussed emerging prediction market startups, strategies to attract more women to these platforms, and the industry’s growth prospects amid increasing mainstream attention and a favorable regulatory climate.
There were a few builders from the industry in attendance, like Evie (@0xgingergirl on X), who is building her own platform that integrates prediction markets into live streams. Crypto is one of the most popular prediction market verticals, so there are many startups focused on crypto users.
Many in attendance were still new to prediction markets. Some were crypto users who hadn’t used prediction markets, or they were entrepreneurs curious about how they could take advantage of the prediction market boom.
Momentum favors continued growth and disruption
What I observed is that prediction markets are still incredibly niche, a novelty for many in both the gambling and tech industries. That novelty opens up new opportunities for growth and disruption in the finance and gambling industries.
While the crowd was overwhelmingly enthusiastic about prediction markets, I brought up the spectre of the boom years’ end. A new set of CFTC commissioners will likely be less permissive than Caroline Pham’s regime. Even members of the finance industry have some appetite for reforming the self-certification process. A “Goldilocks” position could limit the topics that regulated exchanges could certify contracts on in the future.
Given the possible relatively short window for the most aggressive innovations, platforms are incentivized to grow as quickly as possible to make rolling back new products and features more difficult.
At least in the medium term, there’s a lot for prediction markets to look forward to–much to the frustration of the regulated sports betting industry and some corners of finance.
