In yesterday’s “Trader’s Guide to Election Day 2025” newsletter, prediction market trader and analyst Matt Schmitto highlighted actionable trades along with strategic reasoning geared toward maximizing returns on the most high-profile races of the day. You can read the full 2025 Election Day primer here.
What follows is a roundup of Matt’s top trades for Election Day 2025 for anyone seeking last-minute election trading opportunities. Head here for current election odds.
NYC Mayor Race
The trade: Zohran Mamdani (D) to win (price: 90¢)
Case for:
Cuomo needs an unusually large polling miss to pull off the upset…Mamdani is probably safe at 90¢, but not nearly the bargain he was on Wednesday of last week at 86¢. If you missed that opportunity, I can’t blame you for staying away now.
The trade: Mamdani to win by a margin of 24% or more (Price: 27¢)
Case for:
There are a few reasons to think Mamdani could beat expectations.
- First, he outperformed his polling numbers in the primary.
- Second, he has a much more enthusiastic voting base.
- Third, he hasn’t shown real vulnerability to his competitors’ recent attacks.
If Cuomo-leaning voters stay home out of a lack of enthusiasm, then Mamdani may again outperform polls and cash ‘Yes’ tickets, which traders can currently get at roughly 2-to-1 odds.
The trade: ‘No’ on Mamdani to win by 24% or higher margin (Price: 75¢)
Case for:
Most polling shows Mamdani’s margin lower than 20%. Cuomo could still get some last minute support from Sliwa voters who decide to cast their ballots for “the lesser of the two evils,” making just enough of a difference to keep this within 24%.
NJ Governor Race
The trade: Sherrill (D) to win (Price: 82¢)
Case for:
New Jersey is a blue state with a massive Democratic voter registration advantage of nearly 800,000 voters that, though trending down, remains an advantage. Sherrill has successfully brought together her base, with high single-digit leads in most late-stage polling, and critically, a robust early-vote operation where Democrats have significantly outpaced Republicans in ballots already cast. Moreover, it’s an off-year election, creating higher turnout among affluent and educated voters, a demographic segment that traditionally favors Democrats. And then there’s Trump, who remains massively unpopular in the state.
The trade: Ciattarelli (R) to win (Price: 19¢)
Case for:
The case for a Republican takeover of the governor’s mansion is less about Ciattarelli and more about Democrats who have held the office since 2018, with a current Governor, Phil Murphy, who is widely unpopular. The last time a party won three consecutive NJ governor terms was in 1965. Moreover, Sherrill’s primary win with only 34% of the vote also could hint at trouble and there’s plenty of uncertainty within the crossstabs: her support among Black voters has been reported between 40-82%, while Ciattarelli’s support among Hispanic voters has been reported as low as 18% and high as 41%. An upset is unlikely but not unfathomable.
Virginia Attorney General Race
The Virginia attorney general race “is undeniably the tightest on the ballot with the controversy making polls more unreliable than usual.”
The trade: Jay Jones (D) to win (Price: 45¢)
Case for:
Ticket correlation trumps the scandal, meaning there are enough “shy Jones voters” who will vote for him but are unwilling to admit it to pollsters. This is the main way Jones will outperform polling, which do already make this a close race with numbers within the margin of error.
The trade: Jason Miyares (R) to win (58¢)
Case for:
Late fundraising and public perception all lean toward Miyares. If there’s undervoting—voters choosing Spanberger (D) for governor but skipping the AG race at the bottom of the ticket entirely due to distaste for Jones—then Miyares will walk away the victor.
Election Day trading tips
Some tips to keep in mind if you decide to trade on Election Day:
- Keep emotions in check
- Monitor live price swings closely
- Don’t force action where value has evaporated
On Election Day, disciplined trades, market awareness, and level-headed exits are your edge as the last ballots come in.
Disclaimer: This content is not intended as trading or financial advice. Traders should do their own research before investing or trading on financial markets.
