Redistricting Battles Spark Speculation But Democrat Odds Hold Steady

Texas Rangers, the FBI, and the president were ready to hunt down the Texas Democrats who fled the state to defeat a redistricting map that explicitly favored Republicans.

Commercial prediction market Kalshi launched a market on whether one of these Democrats would be arrested to force their return to Texas and restore a quorum for votes. Odds opened at 44% and fell to 13% that evening. The odds remained under 25% for most of the market’s lifetime.

Texas Democrats agreed to return to the state on Monday after they ran out the clock on the first special session to vote on the map. They won’t be able to stop the second special session, but they will be able to challenge the new redistricting map in court.

Democrats and Republicans in other states took notice, and prediction markets have reacted in turn.

Redistricting in other states

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has become the national figurehead in the Democratic response to Texas’ new map. Newsom has threatened to create a map that creates new Democratic districts to counter Texas’ redistricting plan.

Kalshi traders give Texas (95%), Ohio (83%), Missouri (76%), and California (65%) better-than-chance odds of redistricting before the 2026 midterms. The market also requires these states’ maps to survive court challenges and go into effect before the 2026 midterms. Kalshi’s full terms clarify:

• Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to “Yes” if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date
• Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to “No”
• Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to “No”
• If no new maps are adopted by [the Expiration Date], the market will resolve to “No”

Even though both red and blue states are likely to succeed in putting new maps before their voters by the midterms, the gains may well balance out.

Democrats still favored to win House in 2026

As the redistricting wars continue across the United States, the Democrats are still favored to flip the House in 2026. Their odds have fallen 16 points to 69% from a high of 85% about a week after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

Trump has continuously backed down from his worst tariff threats, and his TACO policies have decreased the impact on markets–including election markets–that they could’ve had if he’d stood by every 100% tariff threat.

Even if multiple states pass new maps, U.S. courts can still hear challenges and strike the maps down. The Republican majority is safer in 2026 than it was in 2018, when Democrats made the midterms a referendum on Trump and won 40 House seats.

Democrats only have to flip three seats for a majority this midterm season, and have three House seats held by Republicans in counties that voted for Harris to target. Another 19 Republican-held seats are in counties Trump won by 7.5% or less in 2024. Democrats won about two-thirds of those seats in 2018 during Trump’s first term.

Cynical redistricting plans may corrode America’s democracy, but even aggressive redistricting that survives legal challenges by the midterms may not save the Republican House majority.