Two bombshells dropped in the prediction market industry off the heels of a monumental SEC-CFTC roundtable that took place on Monday.
Not only is Brian Quintenz no longer President Trump’s nominee for the CFTC, but the CFTC also issued guidance advising that prediction markets should have plans in place in case ongoing lawsuits result in sports contracts being prohibited in certain states.
Let’s take a look at the latest developments.
Quintenz officially out as CFTC chair nominee
Politico reported on Tuesday that Quintenz’s nomination had been withdrawn. The White House did not offer a specific time for when it would announce the replacement nominee.
Quintenz was head of crypto policy at a16z and a former CFTC commissioner. He’s also a current member of Kalshi’s board. His nomination fell apart after the Winklevoss twins lobbied Trump for a new CFTC Chair nominee after Quintenz refused to provide assurances in favor of their crypto platform Gemini.
Quintenz was also likely to support sports contracts. In a 2021 dissent from a presumed rejection of ErisX sports contracts, Quintenz argued that any event could potentially be a commodity under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.
However, the next CFTC commissioner could have similarly expansive views on what a regulated event contract could be. Donald Trump Jr., an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket, posted on X that he “agreed” that Georgia and Alabama should update their sports betting laws to allow wagers on college football. Federally regulated sports contracts could accomplish that goal.
Crazy. Totally agree on changing it. https://t.co/agcdiQsEq5
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) September 28, 2025
CFTC guidance warns industry about sports contract termination
Also on Tuesday, the CFTC issued an advisory notice ahead of the expected government shutdown. It warned organizations to be prepared for the “termination of sports-related event contract positions.” It read in part:
“FCMs, IBs, DCMs, and DCOs should provide customers, market participants, and clearing members with regularly updated information, including information based on any States in which they operate or engage in activity, to ensure that such customers, market participants, and clearing members understand the possible effects should State regulatory actions or ongoing or new litigation, including enforcement actions, result in termination of sports-related event contract positions.”
The CFTC has not taken a position on whether sports-related event contracts constitute gaming under the Special Rule. That silence was finally broken. Presumably, this advisory is in preparation for what could happen if Kalshi loses one of its court cases or the next commissioner decides to order them delisted.
Goldilocks’ position is unfavorable for prediction market platforms
On Monday’s joint SEC/CFTC panel, Craig Donohue, the CEO of CBOE Global Markets, raised concerns about product certification standards that lacked “speed bumps” or “checks and balances.”
Craig Donohue on SEC/CFTC reg approaches:
“I feel a little bit like Goldilocks, which is one is…way too impeding of innovation and progress and bringing things to market. And the other one is kind of like the Wild Wild West, with no speed bumps, no checks and balances.”— Chris Gerlacher (@GerlacherC) September 29, 2025
While the industry panelists agreed that innovation should be fostered through SEC and CFTC cooperation, there was a clear split between the old and new guard. (Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan calling the CEO of CME Group “old” and getting flipped off was one of the more dramatic examples of the divide.) The startups in DeFi and event contracts were pushing boundaries with leaner regulations than SEC-regulated companies like NASDAQ.
The “Goldilocks” approach that Donohue hopes for would likely mean some way for self-certifications to be reviewed. Such a review process could limit the topics that event contracts can be based on.
However, a permissive CFTC Chairman supportive of preempting state gaming laws could make a modified self-certification process moot. Many consequential decisions are riding on the next CFTC Chair selection.
