The midterms are still a year and a half away, but the 2028 presidential election is already beginning to take shape. Neither party will have an incumbent, and the Democratic field is particularly wide open.
Commercial prediction market platform Kalshi gives California Gov. Gavin Newsom (21% | 20¢) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13% | 15¢) the best chances of being the 2028 Democratic nominee, at time of writing.
Newsom’s distancing from the Progressive base
Newsom has been distancing himself from progressive positions he embraced throughout his political career. He mocked the use of the term “Latinx” in his first podcast episode after using Latinx throughout 2020. On the same episode, he walked back his support for a 2014 law allowing transgender athletes in women’s sports in California schools.
This rush to the cultural middle is an attempt to moderate policies that helped motivate Trump’s base. A February 2025 Pew Survey found an increase in Republicans and Democrats who opposed transgender women in women’s sports, though large partisan differences remained. Brookings also found that, alongside immigration and the economy, attacking Kamala Harris’ support for transgender Americans was an effective Trump campaign tactic, especially in the South.
Newsom’s bet is that retreating from the most progressive cultural issues while retaining tax policy that increases taxes on wealthy Americans will be a winning combination for the Democratic Party in 2028.
AOC doubling down on progressivism
While Newsom has distanced himself from some of his progressive positions, AOC has embraced hers.
Her campaign positions include support for the types of gender-affirming care and transgender participation in sports that Newsom is now distancing himself from. She’s also an open champion for policies like Medicare for all, housing as a human right, and remains a supporter of abolishing Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Her positions include a blend of populist economic policies – tax the rich, mobilize government for ordinary Americans – but they also include positions that are unlikely to become policy, like getting rid of ICE or including gender transitions in a Medicare for All program.
Her willingness to disrupt government and mobilize it on behalf of regular people instead of political lobbyists could make up for her shortcomings on culture war issues.
Possible “third way” candidates
When Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992, he did so in part by moving right on criminal punishment and embracing the war on drugs. Different issues animate America today, but Clinton’s “third way” model remains an attractive blueprint for Democrats seeking to recover from their decisive 2024 loss.
Newsom’s distancing is a version of this “third way” playbook updated for the political environment 30 years later. He is betting that a similar moderating approach will make him more electable, especially after years of being ridiculed by the right as someone capable of enacting the worst leftist policies, based on his political career in California. AOC is making the opposite bet, that doubling down on progressivism will present the kind of working-class vision for Americans that can counter MAGA in 2028.
Whether any of these approaches will result in a Democratic POTUS in 2028 remains to be seen (current odds at Kalshi: 51% Democrat | 49% Republican). For now, traders are betting on which direction the Dems will opt for in an attempt to give the party its best shot to regain the Oval Office. And there’s still plenty of time for a long shot candidate to emerge as the new frontrunner for the nomination.
