PredictIt will launch in October as a CFTC-regulated exchange, as first reported by Bloomberg on Friday.
OG political predictions market, @predictit (& Aristotle), just got CFTC approval to launch a regulated exchange, after years of litigation. https://t.co/3aBCq2ECpe
— Lydia Beyoud (@ElleBeyoud) September 5, 2025
PredictIt is an academic prediction market exchange focused on political markets run by Aristotle Inc. The company will run both the exchange and the clearinghouse.
PredictIt market expansion
This change will shield PredictIt from some of the regulatory uncertainty it faced when it relied on its no-action letter from 2014. The CFTC revoked that letter in 2022, citing violations of the no-action letter that PredictIt disagreed with. Both parties reached a settlement in July after a three-year legal battle.
The settlement allowed PredictIt to increase its position limits to $3,500 and eliminated its trader limits.
“We thank the CFTC staff and Acting Chair Pham for their diligence in reviewing and approving our applications,” said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, in a press release. “With more than a decade of experience operating PredictIt, we’re excited to bring that knowledge and community to a fully regulated marketplace.”
CFTC poised to allow continued prediction market growth
The CFTC now has one commissioner, Acting Chair Caroline Pham, who has overseen the prediction market industry’s expansion. Under her chairmanship, Kalshi has offered sports contracts on traditional sports wagers, and the CFTC has ended its investigation of crypto prediction market platform Polymarket.
As the CFTC prepares to regulate crypto in line with the CLARITY Act, prediction markets will be a major vertical for the crypto industry. Already, companies like PNP Exchange are working on automatic market resolutions and market resolution terms powered by LLMs.
Even for crypto companies that don’t become CFTC-regulated, their features could be adopted by regulated platforms once the technologies reach maturity. A permissive CFTC could allow these and other rules to be self-certified if they turn out to be effective.
