Prediction markets bridge the gambling, crypto, and regulated finance industries. They can be used to hedge risk and forecast events. The subject of derisive criticism and hope for a cure to misinformation, the prediction market space is a roiling mass of movers and shakers. The industry has come a long way since I began covering prediction markets in 2021.
As another way to covering the exploding prediction markets industry, I’m launching a new podcast series called Prediction Market Movers. It’s a weekly podcast where I interview major figures and thought leaders throughout the event trading and forecasting industry. Sporttrade founder Alex Kane and Kalshi’s former Head of Operations Noah Sterning are the first two guests.
Range of prediction market topics and personalities
We’ll also be looking for guests who are not part of the regulated prediction market space. Non-profits like Metaculus have much to offer in political polling. The crypto segment of the prediction market industry is creating new types of trading and market resolution that could one day mature into core features of regulated platforms. Traders have some of the most interesting insights about both the markets and their underlying events.
The industry also raises questions about how to definitively identify “truth” and how much support problem traders should have. These issues deserve to be explored and have been the subject of debate among great thinkers for years.
On this podcast series, I hope to explore those areas and much more. We’re here to talk about the good, the bad, and the ugly of the industry. Any suggestions for guests are welcome.
Episode 1: Interview with Sporttrade founder Alex Kane
- Why he started Sporttrade
- The future of prediction markets vs. sports betting
- His letter to the CFTC on regulation
- Why intermediation and fair markets matter
- The opportunities (and risks) as new players enter the space
Alex has been at the center of sports trading innovation since 2018, and his perspective on regulation, market structure, and consumer fairness is a must-hear for anyone interested in where prediction markets are headed.
Here’s a sample snippet from the interview:
“What I what I’d like to see is more participation, more participation in a way where folks are making critical and thoughtful decisions about how this can become a sustainable market structure…And ultimately, what will happen is that in five years, someone could open up any old app feel protected in their ability to control their use of event contracts. But for something like the Eagles-Cowboys game, they’re going to pay one-tenth of 1% which, by the way, is 45 times less than they pay now. And that is an excellent thing.
“And anyone that stands in the way of that sort of progress doesn’t care about the customer, as long as these intermediaries and the exchanges, and to some degree, the clearing houses, continue to advance a fair market structure that can allow this to be sustainable and to exist. And so that’s my hope. That’s my vision. I think Sporttrade could be a massive part of that.”
Follow Prediction Market Movers on YouTube, Spotify
This is just the beginning—subscribe so you don’t miss conversations with the voices shaping the prediction market industry.
