Polymarket scored a crucial backer and advisor as it prepares to return to the United States. Donald Trump Jr. not only joined as an advisor, but an investment firm he’s a partner at, 1789 Capital, also invested in Polymarket. Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket, said in a press release:
“This strategic investment marks a significant milestone for Polymarket. Our long-term partnership with 1789 Capital will help reinforce Polymarket’s leading position as a trusted source of free, transparent and accurate market information in the U.S. and around the world.”
Donald Trump Jr. has a history with prediction markets. The Trump team was watching Kalshi’s odds on election night in 2024, and Trump Jr. is already a strategic advisor for Kalshi. He is quoted in the press release praising Polymarket as a source of truth:
“Polymarket cuts through media spin and so-called ‘expert’ opinion by letting people bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world. I am pleased that 1789 Capital is investing in Polymarket and am honored to join the company’s advisory board. I look forward to working with the team to advance its mission of bringing truth and transparency to everyone – including the U.S.”
How much truth is on Polymarket?
The MAGA movement is distrustful of experts who recommend policy from on high. It’s why MAGA figures spread so many conspiracy theories about the “deep state” and “unelected bureaucrats” in various government agencies.
Polymarket advertises that it’s accurate “90% of the time,” but that figure comes from a Dune researcher whose findings reveal more nuance beyond that top-line figure. Alex McCullough found that Polymarket’s markets resolve at roughly the same rates as their implied probabilities (based on contract prices), but found a favorite-longshot bias and lower accuracy among sports contracts.
Whatever the nuances, prediction markets use traders to arrive at a market consensus of an event’s likelihood. Prediction market platforms like Polymarket and CFTC-regulated Kalshi give people who distrust traditional institutions alternative means for forecasting events.
That anti-establishment attitude is not unique to the MAGA movement, but it does form a cornerstone of the ideology that prediction markets, and especially crypto-based exchanges, align with.
Polymarket’s return to the U.S.
Polymarket had to leave the United States market in January 2022 as part of a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In July 2025, the DOJ dropped two ongoing probes into Polymarket, clearing the way for the crypto-based prediction market exchange to return to the U.S.
Soon after, Polymarket acquired a CFTC-regulated exchange, QCEX, paving a path for Polymarket’s contracts to be legally traded in the United States. How Polymarket’s new U.S. facing operation differs from the existing platform remains to be seen, but there is work to be done.
Trump Jr. could help Polymarket navigate the changing regulatory landscape and even lobby on the company’s behalf. The CFTC still doesn’t have a permanent chair, and the CLARITY Act will create a new regulatory framework for crypto products. With this latest move, Polymarket has a powerful ally to leverage as it prepares for its American re-entry.
