Kalshi launched a mention market for the Oct. 16 NYC mayoral debate on Monday, the day after Eric Adams announced he was ending his bid for re-election. Now, prediction market traders’ attention turns not only to who will become the next mayor of NYC, but also what words the remaining candidates will utter on the debate stage.
At present, the most likely words to be spoken are “rent” (97%), “job” (97%), and “economy” (95%), three major issues for New Yorkers struggling to afford groceries and rent.
Outside of sports and politics, mention markets are among the most popular trading markets on platforms like Kalshi. The odds are volatile and can be unpredictable. And more so with the unpredictability of the speaker. Cases in point: In one of Trump’s recent speeches, he said “vaccine,” which had a 28% chance of being said before the event. Kalshi’s market on what Trump would say in September took “fat shot / Ozempic” from 11% to 100%. Trump also managed to say “Rushmore” in August 2025, a term that was trading at just 23% before he dropped it.
Politicians’ predicability or lack thereof can turn these markets into potentially profitable trading opportunities for those following along from the sidelines, and the NYC Mayoral debate is no exception.
Likely and unlikely NYC Mayoral debate mentions
Trump is an especially unpredictable speaker, but a live debate creates opportunities for long-shot mentions to come through.
Case for and against: “Gristedes” (16% | 16¢)
For example, one of the candidates says “Gristedes” if Mamdani’s state-run grocery store plan comes up. Mamdani has proposed a chain of state-run grocery stores that offer lower prices than private companies like Gristedes. Mamdani could call Gristedes out for high prices during the debate or another candidate could defend Gristedes in an alternative explanation for high grocery prices.
Case for: “Ackman” (23% | 23¢)
“Ackman” could come up if Mamdani riffs on the billionaires lining up against him. Mamdani prides himself on running against wealthy elites who, in his view, are pricing ordinary New Yorkers out of apartments in the city. Ackman has pledged to fund any serious challenger to Mamdani, so invoking Ackman’s opposition could be a talking point in Mamdani’s debate performance.
Case for: “Luigi / Mangione” (16% | 16¢)
Finally, Luigi Mangione could come up in a discussion about crime (93% | 97¢) in New York City, which is one of the most likely topics to be discussed. Mangione shot the United Healthcare CEO in New York City in December 2024. It was part of a larger wave of political shootings that would come to include Democratic lawmakers in Minnesota and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. Mangione is one of the most high-profile shooters who could be named in a debate segment about crime.
Case for: “puppet” (33% | 33¢)
Another twist in the mention market could come from Eric Adams’ decision to leave the campaign on Sunday. His drop-out could be fodder for a “puppet” mention, a term thrown at him for his corruption scandals and courting of Trump.
Trades in mention markets aren’t just on what’s likely to be said. They’re also on whether there is enough information reflected in the prices to be accurate. Longshots can be underpriced, especially if the speakers are unpredictable, and this market has just $17,000 in trading volume as of Oct. 1.
Sliwa saw 100% gain in dropout chances
Eric Adams announced he was dropping out of the New York City mayoral race on Sunday. Prediction markets gave him a low chance of winning and a high chance of dropping out, so the news had minimal impact on related markets.
Adams was trading around 65% (to drop out) before he officially bowed out. Cuomo’s odds remained around 4% as he is still Mamdani’s most viable opponent; Even Trump hoped to narrow the mayoral race to a Cuomo and Mamdani matchup.
Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa’s odds of dropping out were more interesting. His dropout odds doubled from 10% to 20% after Adams left the race. Sliwa was consistently voters’ third choice in a four-way race with Cuomo comfortably ahead in most polls.
From a trading perspective, a doubling in price is enormous, but a 20% chance of dropping out of the race does not suggest that a dropout announcement is imminent–at least not yet.
Prediction markets saw Adams’ downfall coming
Adams has been mired in corruption scandals since taking office. One such scandal involved illegal campaign contributions from Turkish nationals, which resulted in fraudulently obtained state campaign matching funds.
He has also tried to pander to President Trump. In an apparent quid pro quo, the Trump administration dropped a Department of Justice investigation into Adams after he agreed to cooperate with ICE operations in New York City. Democratic voters also did not appreciate Adams pulling closer to Trump.
But neither of his major competitors’ odds moved in response. After Adams’ dropout, remaining candidate odds barely moved in the mayoral victory market. Zohran Mamdani remains the heavy favorite at 85% (85¢) with Andrew Cuomo’s chances of pulling off the upset estimated at 15% (15¢).
Sliwa remains a 2% (2¢) underdog, but a favorable debate performance could see that number jump for a nice return, even if the spike is fleeting. High-profile events like debates can trigger market movement (and overreaction), potentially creating quick-flip opportunities for prediction market traders paying attention. One thing is certain: Traders will continue looking for opportunities to turn a profit as the drama unfolds until we have a clear winner.
