With the 2025 college football season on its way and the NFL regular season set to kick off next week, prediction market platforms are gearing up to get in on what has traditionally been sports betting operators’ most lucrative time of the year.
While Polymarket is promoting its U.S. return with ads touting its football event contracts and Kalshi is expanding its football offerings, the NFL and NCAA have weighed in on the rise of prediction markets, particularly in regards to football markets.
Both the college football governing body and professional football league expressed concern over what they see as a lack of proper safeguards and regulations for sports prediction markets. Both suggested that, without the kinds of regulatory oversight that state-regulated sports betting sites operate under, prediction markets could be a threat to the integrity of the game.
NFL says prediction markets lack “certain regulatory requirements”
While sportsbooks are licensed and regulated by the states that allow sports betting, prediction markets are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The NFL apparently doesn’t see CFTC regulation as sufficient or as thorough as state-by-state regulations.
During a media call on Aug. 25, according to the Sports Business Journal, NFL vice president and general manager of sports betting David Highhill told reporters that the league is concerned that, without proper regulation, sports prediction markets “could be susceptible to manipulation or price distortion.”
“The key distinction for us is that, for now, prediction markets lack certain regulatory requirements that we know sportsbooks are subject to, like information sharing, responsible betting tools and the objectionable bet prohibitions,” Highhill added. “So however this comes to be through the legal channels, it’s really important that we take advantage of the robust framework that we’ve put in place via the legalized sports betting process and all the leagues have the same types of protections in place.”
NFL officials also said that sports prediction markets will be treated the same as traditional sports betting, in terms of prohibitions on engagement for NFL players, coaches and staff. While players are permitted to wager on non-NFL events, according to ESPN, league personnel are not allowed to bet on any sport.
During the media call, the NFL’s chief compliance officer, Sabrina Perel, said that, from the NFL’s perspective, “these platforms mimic sports betting” and “are covered as prohibited conduct under our policy.”
Kalshi reps defend integrity systems in place
A Kalshi spokesperson provided ESPN with a comment in response to the NFL’s concerns, saying that the platform does adhere to many of the guidelines Highhill mentioned in his comment and would work with the NFL to address any issues.
“Kalshi goes even further to operate with the highest level of integrity, launching responsible trading features such as deposit limits and self-exclusion, and partnering for additional oversight with compliance firm IC360, which works with every major league and sportsbook,” the spokesperson said. “We are committed to working with the NFL and all leagues to address their concerns, share data, and be as transparent as we are legally allowed to be.”
Sara Slane, Head of Corporate Development for Kalshi and former SVP of Public Affairs at the American Gaming Association (AGA), took to LinkedIn to “set the record straight”:
NCAA says it’s “deeply concerned” about prediction markets
Last week, the NCAA made similar comments as the NFL about prediction market platforms offering college football event contracts. The NCAA issued a statement to ESPN’s David Purdum that addressed their integrity concerns, while also suggesting such markets raise concerns about safety for college athletes.
The statement was made in response to news that retail broker Robinhood was adding college and pro football prediction markets to its platform via its partnership with Kalshi.
“Sport integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we are deeply concerned by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a threat to competition integrity and student-athlete safety,” the NCAA’s statement said. “We will continue to analyze developments of this market and work with industry leaders to help ensure guardrails and regulations to protect NCAA competition, student-athletes, coaches and officials.”
The NCAA has previously lobbied for state regulators and licensed sportsbooks to prohibit college player prop bets for safety reasons. States like Ohio and Maryland banned college player props in response to the NCAA’s concerns.
Polymarket advertises football markets ahead of U.S. launch
As of today, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had markets related to individual college player performances on the field. But last week, Kalshi self-certified a few new football markets, suggesting markets related to player game achievements like passing yards, rushing yards and more could follow. Whether they’ll add markets that resemble college player prop bets is unclear.
As Kalshi expands its football market offerings, Polymarket has been getting ready for its re-launch in the U.S., which is being made possible by the company’s purchase of CFTC-approved exchange and clearing house QCEX.
Ahead of the launch, Polymarket has set up a page for prospective U.S. users to sign up for early access to the platform’s sports markets. While an official date to go live in the U.S. hasn’t been announced, Polymarket has also led many to believe that the launch is imminent by directly touting its football markets with ad buys on the Meta social media sites Instagram and Facebook.
According to Sportico, the marketing material for the advertisements include taglines like, “BREAKING: Legal football trading is coming to ALL 50 states this fall.” The Meta ads are also said to be specifically targeting users in states that do not currently allow legal sports betting, like one that reportedly states, “BIG NEWS Texas. Trading on football will be LEGAL this fall.”
At least one of the Polymarket ads directly aims at sportsbooks, touting its better odds compared to DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, whose logos are used in the advertisement.
Legal challenges still loom
As it stands, football fans across the country will have more outlets to put money on a game this season, even if they don’t live in a state that has legalized sports betting.
Whether that holds up for the entire season remains to be seen, as Kalshi and other platforms face protracted legal battles with a few different states and Native American tribes. The legal issues largely center on whether sports prediction markets infringe on state sports betting regulations and whether they should be prohibited in certain jurisdictions.
Resolutions to those court cases don’t appear to be coming in the immediate future. But if the results fall in favor of prediction markets, trading football and other sports event contracts will continue and likely expand in all 50 states. But a resolution in favor of the states or tribes could see restrictions tightened on all sports event contracts.
