MoviePass, the movie ticketing subscription service, has launched a film industry fantasy contest called Mogul. The company is planning to add a film-focused prediction market component to the game, which resembles DFS-style sports fantasy contests.
In a livestream Wednesday, just ahead of Mogul’s public beta launch, MoviePass co-founder and CEO Stacy Spikes described the new product as “if FanDuel and Polymarket had a child and that child loved movies.” He said Mogul is “the first fantasy sports league and prediction market for Hollywood.”
Spikes confirmed to Prediction News that MoviePass is pursuing a way to offer prediction markets that is compliant with Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulations. The CFTC oversees and regulates prediction market platforms that it has approved as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), allowing them to offer the markets in all 50 states. Companies can also offer prediction markets by partnering with a DCM.
“We are not in a position to discuss the details yet, but yes we are in discussions to be able to offer a regulatory-compliant way to offer prediction markets, like through CFTC approval as a DCM or a partnership with a CFTC-approved prediction platform,” Spikes said.
The public beta version of Mogul opened Wednesday and doesn’t yet have standalone prediction markets à la Polymarket and Kalshi. Currently, users can participate in movie industry-related polls, which appear to provide a hint of what the eventual prediction market offerings will look like.
CEO: “Timing’s really good” for fantasy, prediction market product
For the beta launch, which welcomed 400,000 users from the waitlist to try out the game according to TechCrunch, the focus is on the fantasy gaming aspect of Mogul. Users can build their own fantasy movie studio by selecting from various films, actors and directors. According to the launch press release, users then “compete to predict net box-office performance and cultural impact.”
Those participating in the beta “Season 1” receive $1 million in free virtual currency to build their teams, with top performers vying for a share of a $100,000 prize pool. After launching as a free-to-play game, MoviePass says that Mogul will eventually introduce real-money gaming.
The release alludes to Mogul’s prediction markets a few times, saying the game is launching “amid the recent global surge in prediction and fantasy markets. The 2024 U.S. election cycle and the 2025 sports season both drove record participation, with billions of dollars in trading and gameplay volume.”
“Prediction markets are rapidly exploding and expected to become the next trillion dollar digital economy,” Spikes said in the release. “For years, sports fans have had their own fantasy and prediction leagues and we should have a platform of our own — one where we can connect, debate, predict and speculate.”
During the livestream event, Spikes also noted the substantial rise in interest in and engagement with fantasy sports and prediction markets in recent years.
“We’ve been working on this for a couple of years, so this moment is a really big deal to us,” he said. “What’s ironic is to see prediction markets and fantasy sports markets really have heated up. We had no idea two, three years ago that things were going to culminate to this. Timing’s really good (for Mogul’s launch).”
Mogul will offer markets for movies, music and pop culture
During the launch livestream, Spikes said Mogul’s prediction markets will not include the full slate of markets available on platforms like Kalshi, but they also won’t be limited exclusively to film industry predictions. So, while you won’t find sports, political or economic markets, Spikes says they’re “going to go hardcore deep on movies, music and pop culture.”
“Movie lovers like ourselves are always talking about (things like) what’s the box office going to be this weekend and who’s going to get cast as the next Black Panther, all of these things that we’re always trying to guess ourselves,” Spikes said in the livestream. “To bring that together as a game is really exciting. We’re creating products that we love and that we think film fans like us will love.”
The polls in the beta version of Mogul don’t have a gaming component, functioning instead more like the user-created polls on X, where you simply make a pick and then see the results so far. But the polls are similar to prediction markets in that they let users take binary “Yes” and “No” positions on various topics.
Some examples of Mogul’s polls/prediction markets include:
- Will the next James Bond be British?
- Will a movie released in November 2025 gross over $1 billion at the global box office?
- Will Avatar 3 surpass Avatar: The Way of Water in opening weekend numbers?
- Will a former sports star win a major acting award in 2026?
- Will Emma Stone in Bugonia secure a Best Actress nomination at the Oscars?
Unexpected companies have been eyeing prediction market entry
Crypto exchanges and retail brokers have been quick to forge partnerships to offer prediction markets on their platforms, while sports gaming operators from Underdog to DraftKings have also made prediction market moves in recent months. MoviePass is the latest unexpected company to venture into the prediction market space amidst the current exploding interest in the industry.
Earlier this year, U.K. marketing firm Galactic launched SI Predict in partnership with Sports Illustrated brand owner Authentic Brands Group. After a soft launch, SI Predict paused operations over the summer to update the platform. Galactic says it is seeking similar partnerships with other media companies to facilitate prediction markets tailored to their audiences.
Earlier this week, Trump Media announced it is aiming to make its Truth Social the first social media company to offer prediction markets through its platform.
