The leak of real-time attack plans overshadowed much of Trump’s tenth week back in office.
Ukraine and Russia’s limited ceasefire looks unlikely to extend into long-term peace, and a new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza doesn’t seem promising, either. Meanwhile, Greenland didn’t appreciate its visit from the second family and seemed more determined than ever to resist American efforts to annex it. Finally, the special election in Florida’s 6th Congressional District could be a surprise loss for Trump in what should’ve been a safe district.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt are different prediction market platforms, but all three have something to show about the state of politics this week.
Will National Security Advisor Mike Waltz resign before May?
Price Highlights: Waltz’s odds of resigning before May are 20%, down from 48% when Signalgate initially broke.
Settlement Terms: Waltz’s resignation or announcement of it by May will resolve the market to “Yes.”
Analysis: On Monday, The Atlantic revealed that its editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, was added to a group chat of Cabinet officials planning air and drone strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Waltz had added Goldberg to the group chat without realizing it. Other Cabinet officials, like Pete Hegseth, J.D. Vance, and Susie Wiles, were also in the chat. No one noticed Goldberg’s presence.
The administration hasn’t found a convincing explanation for the use of an unapproved app or Goldberg’s addition. Waltz may appear safe now, but his position in the administration remains perilous as long as the scandal remains alive.
How many 'Yea' votes in the House to pass reconciliation by May 16?
Price Highlights: PredictIt traders forecast a 91% chance of the House reconciliation bill passing by 214 or fewer votes by May 16.
Settlement Terms: The number of House members who vote to pass the reconciliation bill by May 16 will settle the market. A failure to hold a vote by then will resolve the market to “214 votes or fewer.”
Analysis: The House of Representatives began outlining its reconciliation bill on Monday. That bill will include the bulk of Trump’s legislative priorities, including tax cuts and reduced government spending.
Republicans are concerned about potential cuts to popular programs like Social Security and Medicaid. They’re also watching the ongoing blowback to DOGE cuts, which have targeted many small programs but have left the largest budgets–the Pentagon and Department of Homeland Security–largely untouched.
Given the thin margin and Republican concerns, PredictIt traders seem skeptical that a vote will be held by May 16 at all.
What will the margin of victory be in Florida’s 6th district special election?
Price Highlights: PredictIt traders think there is a 17% chance that Randy Fine (R) wins by 3-6% and a 15% chance that Fine wins by 0-3%. There’s also a 13% chance that Joshua Weil (D) will win.
Settlement Terms: The reported vote counts and margin of victory will decide where the market settles.
Analysis: On Thursday, Trump announced he was withdrawing Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N. Ambassador, preferring to keep her in the House, where she could help protect the Republicans’ three-vote majority.
Trump and other top Republicans are concerned about the fundraising disparity between Fine (R) and Weil (D). Weil has outspent Fine by over nine times, a staggering amount in a district that Trump won by over 30 points in 2024.
While Trump’s voters back Fine, they’re unsure about Elon Musk and his DOGE cuts. Tuesday’s special election will be the first reckoning that Republicans face over Trump’s chaotic first 10 weeks.
Will the United States control any part of Greenland by Jan. 21, 2029?
Price Highlights: Kalshi traders have odds of U.S. control of at least part of Greenland at 34%, up from 23% on Monday.
Settlement Terms: If the United States gains control or announces control over a part of Greenland it hasn’t previously claimed, then the market will settle to “Yes.” Leased land does not count.
Analysis: One of Trump’s obsessions in office has been acquiring Greenland as the 51st state. As ice continues to melt, new shipping routes and mineral deposits are opening up around the island nation. However, Greenland is also seeking independence from Denmark, and the second family’s Friday visit did not make the Greenlandic people more amenable to American control. Control of Greenland remains a longshot, but there’s no telling where Trump’s persistence will lead him by his term’s end.
Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before May?
Price Highlights: Polymarket traders give Israel and Hamas a 35% chance of reaching a ceasefire by May, up from 21% on Wednesday.
Settlement Terms: A publicly announced “halt in military engagement” agreed to by both sides will settle the market to “Yes.”
Analysis: On March 17, Israel resumed a bombing campaign after the Jan. 15 ceasefire deal with Hamas fell apart. The strikes followed Hamas’ refusal to continue releasing hostages and escalating threats from the United States if Hamas didn’t resume the releases.
The war in Gaza began after Hamas militants attacked and kidnapped civilians on Oct. 7, 2023. It has been devastating for Gaza and continues amid domestic turmoil in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration. Netanyahu tried to unilaterally dismiss the head of Shin Bet, Israel’s intelligence service. While the dismissal was blocked by a judge, it marked the front lines of a constitutional crisis that will impact Israeli support for Netanyahu’s continued prosecution of the war.
Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by July?
Price Highlights: Polymarket’s traders give Russia and Ukraine a 29% chance of reaching a ceasefire by July 2025, down from a 50% chance on March 20.
Settlement Terms: Polymarket defines a ceasefire as “a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement” between the two countries. Partial ceasefires, like the Black Sea ceasefire, don’t count toward resolving the market.
Analysis: On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that Russia and Ukraine were “committed” to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea. That doesn’t mean both sides are equally committed to implementing a ceasefire. Hours after calling Trump to agree to a limited ceasefire, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a drone strike on Slovyansk, a city in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky was elected in part with the goal of ending the hostilities in eastern Ukraine that preceded Russia’s 2022 invasion.
