Zohran Mamdani left the New York City mayoral debate much like he entered — with roughly an 88% chance of winning the election on Nov. 4, according to prediction markets.
Mamdani did nothing to hurt his chances, while his competitors, former governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa, did little to gain ground in what has turned into a lopsided race led by the democratic socialist gadfly.
This wasn’t always the case. Mamdani burst onto the scene during the Democratic primary, a stage in which traders gave him a mere 8% chance to win as he courted primary voters.
They were wrong then. Might they be again?
That’s something anyone in the U.S. can trade on today, a reality made possible by a landmark legal victory that pried the door open for election contracts last October.
Checking in on NYC mayoral odds
Like the city itself, New York City mayoral race has become a vibrant hub for election trading, as the summer’s Democratic primary generated nearly $17 million in trades, and now the general election already boasts $35 million with more than two weeks left before city’s voters hit the polls.
Current prices are begging for action on Cuomo and Sliwa, who are priced at 12¢ (12%) and 2¢ (2%), respectively.
That means a $12 trade for Cuomo nets about $87, including a $0.74 fee on the prediction market platform Kalshi.
Beyond NYC mayoral winner
With the main race so lopsided, traders will look at adjacent markets for value as we get closer to Election Day. Here, the questions are more nuanced, offering a way to trade on the political narrative itself.
- Margin of victory: What is sure to become a popular secondary market asks, “By what margin will Mamdani win?” Contracts for “Yes- Mamdani wins by 12-14.99%” are trading at 10¢ (10%), while a landslide “Yes – Mamdani wins by 24% or more” is 39¢ (39%).
- The boroughs: A series of markets asks, “Will Mamdani win [Borough Name]?” While his chances in Brooklyn are priced at 97¢ (97%), he is only 8¢ (8%) in Staten Island, the city’s most conservative borough.
- Dropouts and endorsements: Markets are also active on if candidates will drop out and which endorsements they will receive. Currently, “Yes – Will Curtis Sliwa drop out” is trading at 16¢ (16%). Meanwhile, Eric Adams is 73¢ (73%) to endorse Andrew Cuomo — a market that includes strikes for Michael Bloomberg and Donald Trump, and has surged with north of $400,000 in trades.
Mention markets shine
Perhaps the biggest winner of the night wasn’t a candidate at all, but the traders in the “mention markets“ — a fast-growing category where users bet on specific words or phrases being said at an event.
Just how big? There was about $300,000 traded on the debate when the three candidates took the stage. By the end of the night, that number soared to $1.2 million.
That makes it the second-most traded mention market in Kalshi’s history, according to the platform’s mention market dashboard.
For comparison, Trump’s Crypto Summit speech churned $680,000 and, last week, LeBron James’ “decision of all decisions” generated $819,000 in volume.
This new form of trading is birthing a wave of social media personalities. One, known on X as The Prediction Market Trader, hosted a three-and-a-half-hour live stream leading up to and during the debate.
The stream featured a debate preview with three guests, including top mention trader Foster and poker player/streamer Joey Ingram, followed by live commentary with co-host Locksy.
NYC MAYORAL DEBATE – LIVE 5:30 PM ET
5:30 – Debate preview w/ @ZhouJaron
6:00 – Mention market plays w/ @Foster (Kalshi’s #1 mentions trader)
6:30 – Pro poker legend @Joeingram1
7:00 – Live debate reactions + play-by-play w/ @locksybet https://t.co/onMqeGRqmJ— PredictionMarketTrader (@PredMTrader) October 16, 2025
“I think the debates might be the most fun mentions there are,” said Locksy, as the duo recapped the night. “Just for the fact that it can be so chaotic, and it’s such a combination of the transcript plus the vibes.”
The stream racked up 12.8K views on X, proving there’s demand for mention market content and commentary.
Mention market traders will get another swing next week as Mamdani, Cuomo, and Sliwa are scheduled to meet for the second and final mayoral debate on Oct. 22.
While Mamdani appears ready to run away with the election, for traders, the race is anything but over.
