Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani remains the runaway favorite to win New York City’s mayoral race after his widely publicized upset in the Democratic mayoral primary on July 1. Prediction market traders at Kalshi now give Mamdani an 79% chance (Yes – 80¢) of becoming New York City’s next mayor while Andrew Cuomo is favored to finish runner-up.
Mamdani’s odds took a 4-point hit with Wednesday’s reporting from the New York Times that Trump advisers are discussing a potential position for candidates Eric Adams and possibly also Curtis Sliwa in hopes of improving Cuomo’s chances to defeat Mamdani.
New York City is a reliably Democratic city at all levels of government. So it’s no surprise that the race is a three-way standoff between three Democrats: Mamdani, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and incumbent mayor Eric Adams.
Mamdani’s victory in the primary pushed Cuomo, the former favorite, out of the race as the Democratic nominee. Cuomo is now running a third-party (Independent) campaign to try to defeat Mamdani.
For his part, Adams is an unpopular mayor plagued by corruption scandals. He was accused of accepting illegal campaign contributions from Turkish nationals, leading to over $10 million in fraudulently obtained public matching campaign money. His June net approval rating was also -45%, sandwiched between Donald Trump (-44%) and Elon Musk (-46%).
Let’s take a look at the shifting odds in related NYC Mayor markets.
Cuomo winning the fight for second place
On July 13, the New York Post reported that Cuomo was expected to announce a third party bid for mayor. Cuomo’s odds spiked from 26% (Aug. 13) to 55% (Aug. 14) on the day of his third-party announcement. His odds are currently at 69% (71¢) to be the second-place winner.
Curtis Sliwa (16%), the Republican candidate running for New York City mayor, is basically tied with Mamdani (17%) for second in the runner-up market, both priced at 17¢.
Adams has just a 2% chance (2¢) of coming in second. Given his low approval rating and unpopular scandals, he’s expected to have a bigger loss on election night than a second- or even third-place finish. Running as an Independent, Adams is hoping he can win New Yorkers over by distancing himself from the party machine that helped him rise to power.
Prediction markets do not seem confident in that strategy’s efficacy.
Adams the current favorite to drop out of the race
Throughout 2025, Adams has said that he would stay in the mayoral race “no matter what.” His odds more than doubled from just 29% on Sept. 2, now trading at 67%, following a NYT article suggesting that the Trump administration is considering offering roles to both Adams and Sliwa to incentivize their dropping out of the race. The report suggests the move would be intended “to give former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo a better chance of defeating Mr. Mamdani in November’s general election.”
“It was unclear, though, if a specific job had yet been discussed with those intermediaries, or if Mr. Adams would accept it. The mayor has recently said he plans to continue his campaign and win, despite running fourth in the polls.”
Sliwa’s odds of dropping out are also on the rise, up to 18% from 11% a day earlier. Cuomo had an 89% chance of dropping out of the mayoral race after losing to Mamdani in the June 24 primary. Instead, he chose to remain in the race, and his odds fell to 23% by mid-July.
Cuomo currently has a 6% probability (7¢) of dropping out of the race, with increased support from the current administration potentially rallying behind him in the final stretch of campaign season.
