Ready to dance? Kalshi is betting that you are. On Thursday, the CFTC-regulated prediction market launched markets for the reality-competition show Dancing with the Stars, letting users trade on who will be the next contestant eliminated and the winner of season 34. It’s the company’s first real swing at live reality competitions outside of sports — and it doesn’t stop at the dance floor.
Kalshi also opened a winner market for Love Island Games season 2, signaling that the budding exchange, fresh off a South Park cameo, is ready to push the limits of its pop-culture slate.
The launches follow Kalshi’s self-certified filings with the CFTC this week for two new contract templates:
- “Will <participant> be eliminated from <competition> before <date>?” and
- “Will <participant> win <competition>?”
It’s an ambitious but logical leap that requires exchanges to cautiously consider which shows they feature to protect traders from insider trading and prevent markets from turning into nothing more than obnoxious spoiler machines.
To Kalshi’s credit, it appears they’ve read the warning label.
Reality competition markets have a spoiler problem
Kalshi’s crypto-native rival Polymarket has already shown how quickly pre-recorded competitions can price in leaks. It ran winner markets for the pre-taped Bachelorette season 21, which had its winner leaked 56 days before the Sept. 3, 2024 finale thanks to notorious TV spoiler “Reality Steve.” The markets unofficially “resolved” as quickly as Steve published.
The longer the lag between filming and airing, the greater the risk that insiders ruin the party for traders and viewers.
Dancing with the Stars is live every Tuesday until its scheduled finale on Nov. 25, making it an ideal test for reality-competition markets where traders can buy shares before each episode without worrying too much about information asymmetries.
Its elimination markets could behave like in-play sports, with prices moving minute-to-minute as contestants perform and judges’ scores land.
Love Island Games isn’t as leak-prone as the Bachelor or Survivor franchises, but it’s also not as optimal as DWTS. Like Love Island USA, the show streams “every day but hump day” at 9 p.m. ET, but it doesn’t air live. Episodes are typically pre-recorded roughly one to two days before they hit Peacock.
That short delay doesn’t guarantee spoilers, but it does create an information window that can be exploited. If tea starts spilling, you’ll see it in prices before an episode becomes available for streaming.
New markets, new audiences
Love Island USA just delivered Peacock’s most-watched original season ever (18.4 billion minutes streamed), and its app-driven voting has become a ritual for fans. That’s exactly the kind of new audience Kalshi wants — pop-culture fanatics who don’t necessarily overlap with sports bettors and political traders.
Whether those viewers convert into steady traders is very much TBD; the surer bet is that existing traders start tuning in to DWTS and Love Island Games because they now have skin in the game.
DWTS and Love Island Games: early favorites
To that point, there are 19 cast members for Love Island Games, and as of this writing, the only thing I can tell you about any of them is what the board says: Adriene and Nicola are the early favorites.
If volume picks up, I’ll know the cast like I know my fantasy football roster. But with only $312 traded and a thin order book, I’m still watching last night’s recording of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt and haven’t sprung for a Peacock subscription.
Meanwhile, Robert Irwin and Whitney Leavitt are the favorites to win the 34th season of the dancing competition, priced at 47¢ (47%) and 21¢ (21%), respectively. For next elimination, Andy Richter is the current chalk at 58¢ (58%), according to early forecasts.
You can probably guess the one contestant I know anything about: Danielle Fishel (Topanga) from Boy Meets World. Maybe Jenn Affleck is kin to Ben? Again, no idea.
In any case, if market-makers seed liquidity, I won’t be the only one whose DWTS knowledge increases exponentially by next Tuesday.
What’s next?
Expansion seems inevitable. If Kalshi exercises prudence, it will steer clear from markets for shows like MTV’s The Challenge, The Bachelor/Bachelorette, Survivor, and Top Chef.
They could, however, dip into American Idol and The Voice, each of which run true live voting in later rounds, allowing users to literally trade the arc of a performance night, as does America’s Got Talent. CBS’s reality competition Big Brother is another possibility.
If you’ve watched Kalshi’s product strategy lately, the move follows another big cultural play: mention markets. In the past week we’ve seen traders pile into “What will they say?” contracts for Jimmy Kimmel Live!, South Park’s prediction-market episode, and even Thursday Night Football commentary from Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit.
Now, competition shows like Dancing with the Stars could deliver additional revenue streams, while semi-live formats like Love Island Games test how the markets handle short lags across the filming, production, and screening process.
If Kalshi can keep the fun while minimizing spoilers, this new pop-culture lane could become what keeps traders tapping between kickoffs.
