Leading U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi appears to be on the verge of a major expansion of its sports event outcome markets. On Sept. 15, Kalshi self-certified with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) a new market that covers numerous football player statistical accomplishments.
Kalshi’s main market filing is “Will <player> have <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <count> <statistic> in <time period> of <game>?”
The resulting new markets would resemble the popular player prop bets offered at traditional online sportsbooks, and include trades on things like an individual player’s receiving yards, pass attempts, sacks, interceptions, field goals and much more.
The CFTC filing states that the contracts will begin being listed “after close-of-business on September 16,” so the new markets could be available to Kalshi users ahead of the NFL’s Week 3 games and college football’s Week 4.
Parameters of Kalshi’s new NFL, college football player markets
Kalshi’s CFTC filing materials for the new market lay out the sorts of event contracts that will be offered. The new markets will encompass:
- Passing: completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions
- Rushing: attempts, yards, touchdowns
- Receiving: receptions, yards, touchdowns
- Combined: yards from scrimmage (rushing yards + receiving yards), total touchdowns
- Defensive: tackles (solo + assists), sacks, interceptions, passes defensed
- Special Teams: field goals made/attempted, extra points made/attempted, punts, punt yards
- Returns: kick return yards, punt return yards, return touchdowns
The market filing allows for trades on individual accomplishments during a specified time period:
- Full game (including overtime if played)
- First half, second half
- Specific quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
- Overtime period only
- Specific time ranges
With prediction markets allowing users to trade in and out of positions throughout a game, a lot of football trading volume at Kalshi has come from live, in-game trading. The time-specific parameters of the new markets should encourage that even more.
New markets likely to boost Kalshi trading volume even more
With the new football expansion, Kalshi moves further into traditional sportsbooks’ territory. Upon introducing sports markets for the first time this year, the prediction platform initially offered markets related to game outcomes (similar to moneyline bets) and futures, like playoff series and championship winners.
Ahead of the 2025 football season, Kalshi added additional football markets for point spreads and point totals. At the same, Kalshi offered its first football player prop-like markets for how many touchdowns a particular player would notch.
The new markets will likely provide an even bigger trading volume boost to Kalshi. The platform’s founder and CEO, Tarek Mansour, said that during Week 1 of the NFL season, Kalshi’s trading volume reached $441 million, the majority of which — around $266.1 million, according to our in-house tracking data — came from football markets.
Kalshi has done $441m of volume since NFL kickoff.
NFL week 1 is equal to a US election.
Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/l08dshJ2eN
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 8, 2025
New Kalshi football markets could further raise ire of states
Kalshi has faced several challenges to its ability to offer sports event contracts. States with sports betting have been battling Kalshi in courts, arguing that Kalshi’s sports event outcome contracts are illegal, as they defy state sports betting regulations. Kalshi has been arguing that the CFTC’s federal oversight supersedes state decisions.
The minimum age to join and trade at Kalshi is 18. In most states, to engage in sports betting you must be 21. So, in the eyes of some state regulators, Kalshi is allowing underage sports wagering.
Kalshi’s new football markets could further inflame tensions with the states, as some potential event contracts could directly run afoul of specific state regulations regarding college player props. Several states have either banned college player props entirely, or placed restrictions on wagering on athletes from in-state schools.
Last year, the NCAA called on states to prohibit all college player prop bets at sportsbooks, saying they potentially endanger student athlete safety. Ahead of the start of this year’s college football season, the NCAA issued a statement about prediction markets to ESPN that said they were “deeply concerned by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a threat to competition integrity and student-athlete safety.”
The NFL also expressed concern that sports prediction markets lack “certain regulatory requirements.” Kalshi responded to the NFL’s statement by saying they were ready and willing to work with the NFL to address their concerns, and reiterated that Kalshi is partnered with compliance firm IC360 for oversight and has responsible gaming features.
Kalshi’s head of corporate development, Sara Slane, also took to Twitter to set the record straight about the existing safeguards DCMs are beholden to.
“Our markets operate under robust federal oversight by the CFTC, with safeguards that include deposit limits, self-exclusion tools, independent compliance monitoring, and real-time market surveillance.
“Unlike the patchwork of state-by-state sportsbook rules, federal regulation ensures consistency, transparency, and integrity across the board.”
