Kalshi’s NFL Week 3 was its biggest football week yet, with volume reaching just shy of $300 million. According to Prediction News’ in-house tracker, the number was $297.93 millon, up roughly 24% from Week 2’s $240.35M.
To no one’s surprise now, live trading ruled the day with $214.1 million traded in-game, making up about 72% of Kalshi’s NFL pie versus $83.8 million pre-game. That’s an average of $18.6 million per game—about $13.4M live and $5.2 million pre-kick, marking a healthy rebound in overall participation from Week 2.
Game scripts drive Kalshi trading records
If Week 2 reminded us that blowouts hurt trading, Week 3 proved the inverse.
The most-traded game in Kalshi history hit on Monday Night Football: Lions at Ravens, with a total of $55.97 million traded, including $40.96 million traded live. A high-scoring, back-and-forth script kept the order books stacked and fingers clicking.
Now, what’s in store for Week 4?
NFL Week 4 prediction market preview
- TNF: Seahawks at Cardinals (SEA -1.5, 43.5 total): As of noon ET Thursday, $6.2M had already traded. The tight spread is live-trading friendly even with a modest total.
- Highest total: Colts at Rams (50.5 total ): High totals plus an overachieving Colts team that is now 3-0 could turn this into a trading magnet.
- Bills at Saints (BUF -16.5, 47.5 total): It’s an elevated total, but the big spread could cap in-play churn if the Bills stretch this out early.
- SNF: Packers at Cowboys (47.5 total): Micah Parson returns to Dallas, where Jordan Love faces a defense that is as putrid as ever. However, if Dallas can keep it within one score, expect trading to soar.
- Ravens at Chiefs (BAL -2.5, 48.5 total): A marquee matchup with a near-50 total. Wide receiver Xavier Worthy is listed as questionable but trending in the right direction. Can the Chiefs finally get some offense going to turn this into a trading frenzy?
- MNF doubleheader: Jets at Dolphins (MIA -2.5, 45.5 point total) and Bengals at Broncos (DEN -7.5, 44.5 total): Mid totals for both games. Live interest will track how competitive the scripts stay through the second halves.
Kalshi NFL Futures board check-in
Season-long futures markets continue to build depth on the prediction market platform which pays traders APY for cash holdings and positions, a massive value prop for big-money futures traders who otherwise have to lock their money up for months with sportsbooks without generating any yield.
So far, $15.2 million has been traded on the Super Bowl, with the Bills (19%) and Ravens (14%) leading as favorites.
Meanwhile, NFL MVP has seen about $4 million, with Josh Allen (33%) and Lamar Jackson (20%) out front, followed by Justin Herbert (16%).
One curiosity, however: Daniel Jones, a rising longshot given the 3–0 Colts start, is still missing from Kalshi’s MVP strikes. Traders want action on the former Giants quarterback and 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, but they can’t find it on Kalshi.
Before the season started, who would’ve ever guessed people would be demanding to trade on Daniel Jones winning NFL MVP?
Give the people what they want @KalshiSports. pic.twitter.com/xW0OcVr5bb
— Prediction News (@PredictionNews_) September 24, 2025
What to watch the next few weeks
Traders, and certainly Kalshi, will be rooting for dramatic games. Week 3’s ~72% in-play share, plus the MNF record, reinforces that tight games + scoring volatility are the key drivers of Kalshi’s football volume.
While competitors clash on and off the field, product expansion may be on the horizon. With touchdown props live and additional player-stat templates self-certified, a broader prop menu should add more ways to trade the NFL.
Meanwhile, new entrants are lining up to move in with their sports-event markets. This will create a competitive atmosphere that could lower fees across the board, making it easier for NFL traders to build their bankroll (or at least lose it a little more slowly).
Week 3 showed how quickly Kalshi’s volume can surge when games cooperate, headlined by a record-setting Monday Night Football game. If Week 4’s primetime slate produces another run of close games, expect Kalshi’s figures to keep pressing higher until competition in the space officially arrives.
