Commercial prediction market platform Kalshi filed an emergency rule change for its election markets last Tuesday, one week before Election Day 2025.
Kalshi will now be able to resolve election markets as soon as four of eight designated media sources declare a winner. The update provides a much faster resolution timeline compared to having to wait for official confirmation or swearing in, which has prevented these types of contracts from settling until almost two months after the result is known. Kalshi’s filing reads:
“For United States based [sic] elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News.”
Kalshi traders have been wanting faster resolution times for election markets. Last year, traders with positions on the 2024 presidential election had to wait until late January for their payouts despite knowing the results in early November.
Market on Kalshi won’t resolve until January FYI
— Nick Abouzeid, EA (@nickabouzeid) November 4, 2025
Requirements for Kalshi to change resolution criteria
Kalshi has emergency rule procedures that allow the exchange to change rules to address “Any circumstance that may materially affect the performance of the Contracts traded on Kalshi” or if an “unusual, unforeseeable, and adverse circumstance…may threaten such things as the fair and orderly trading in, or the liquidation of…Contracts traded on Kalshi.”
The long wait time for election contracts to settle qualified as a reason for Kalshi to change its market criteria. Kalshi’s expedited market resolutions arrive just in time for the New York City mayoral race, the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and other off-year elections taking place on Nov. 4, 2025.
The 2025 elections will be a test run for Kalshi’s new settlement terms ahead of the 2026 midterms, which will be a major trading event for the exchange. While the change will speed up most election resolutions, note that some contracts may still take a few days to resolve.
Margin of victory markets could take a little longer
The new rules went into effect on Friday, so Kalshi customers trading on Tuesday’s election markets can expect faster resolution times. With the update, traders should now receive their payouts within hours or days of the election results being called.
However, margin of victory markets may take longer to resolve than candidate victory markets. Kalshi will have to wait for most, if not all, the votes to be processed before being able to confidently resolve those contracts.
