California’s governor is trolling the president of the United States, and his odds to be the Democrats’ next presidential nominee have spiked as a result.
Gavin Newsom’s odds to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028 rose 45% in less than a week, from 20¢ on Aug. 19 to 29¢ on Aug. 25. See current odds via Kalshi below:
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The high-profile digs at Trump have energized Democrats searching for someone who can fight back against Trump. Democrats have been unable to block Trump’s Cabinet nominees or the budget proposed in his big, beautiful bill. Newsom’s energetic trolling contrasts with the plodding responses of Democratic leaders like Chuck Schumer, who reacted to Trump’s threatening of university funding with a letter.
Newsom has also placed himself at the center of one of the most intense partisan fights going on in the country, all culminating in rising probability projections (and market sentiment) for Newsom’s chances in 2028.
Newsom and the redistricting war
At the beginning of August, Texas Democrats left the state to prevent a vote on a new House map that would result in five new safe Republican districts going into the 2026 midterms. Texas passed the new map in the next special session later that month, leading Republicans and Democrats in other states to respond.
Newsom has led the Democratic side of the redistricting fight. His state’s new map would add five new safe Democratic districts, offsetting Texas’ midterm gains. He would also only have the map go into effect if other states successfully implemented their own redistricting schemes. Former president Barack Obama called Newsom’s approach to redistricting a “smart, measured approach.”
The redistricting market at Kalshi currently has California’s odds at 79% (79¢).
As one of the most effective Trump antagonists, Newsom is an early favorite to become the Democrats’ presidential nominee. Newsom’s early success is an indicator of how well he could do against the likely Republican presidential nominee, Vice President J.D. Vance.
One early poll not only confirmed that Newsom is the favorite, but also found something that Kalshi traders quantified early: Newsom is a more favorable option than Kamala Harris.
Kalshi vs. the latest Politico poll
An August 2025 Politico poll found that among California Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, Newsom leads Harris 25% to 19%. Pete Buttigieg (13%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10%) follow in third and fourth, respectively.
These are the percentages of respondents who would vote for the listed candidates, not their chances of winning.
Kalshi’s traders only give Harris a 5% chance of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee. She is at a low point after her 2024 loss to Trump. AOC (12%) at least captures the populist rage that fuels Trump’s campaign, evidenced by her successful rallies with Bernie Sanders in red states like Montana and Idaho. Buttigieg (9%) is a strong communicator who is also comfortable in front of Republican crowds, but still hasn’t broken out on the national stage the way that Newsom has.
