After partnering with Kalshi to provide prediction markets on the Robinhood app, CEO Vlad Tenev and Robinhood Inc. are planning to launch its own prediction market exchange.
They won’t be doing so alone. In fact, they have joined forces with Susquehanna International Group, a global market-making giant and one of Kalshi’s biggest liquidity providers, to acquire a majority stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange. This move gives Robinhood Inc. a full stack of licenses — a designated contract market (DCM) and a derivatives clearing organization (DCO) — required to launch a prediction market exchange and their own clearinghouse under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
I’ve never met an Exchange that didn’t want to also be a Market-Maker – and I’ve never met a Market-Maker that didn’t want to also run an Exchange. 🤷♂️
— Captain Jack Andrews (@capjack2000) September 11, 2025
Since last year, Robinhood has routed customer flow into Kalshi’s exchange, starting with election contracts ahead of the 2024 U.S. election. The relationship later expanded into a full prediction-markets hub and sports contracts through 2025, in which Robinhood is the licensed futures commission merchant (FCM) and Kalshi is the registered DCM. In other words, Robinhood is the retail front door and broker, while the actual contracts and trades live on Kalshi’s exchange and order book behind the scenes.
Robinhood’s prediction market success
The partnership has been a success, to say the least.
Robinhood calls prediction markets its “fastest-growing product line by revenue.” Since launching, the brokerage has facilitated 9 billion contracts by more than 1 million Robinhood users.
“Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” said JB Mackenzie, VP and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers.”
The announcement is a major shake-up in the nascent prediction market industry, validating immense growth potential for what Kalshi has dubbed a “new asset class” while also adding some heavy competition, particularly for Kalshi, whose biggest broker and largest liquidity provider are now on a path to becoming direct competitors.
What the Robinhood-Susquehanna move means for Kalshi
While InGame reports that Robinhood will continue to offer Kalshi’s contracts alongside its own, the new competition — and eventual loss of at least some Robinhood-driven flow — poses a significant blow to Kalshi.
By Kalshi’s own admission, integration with Robinhood accounts for 25—35% of Kalshi’s daily trading volume on the platform, while other reports suggest that over 50% of Kalshi’s October volume came via Robinhood.
The good news for Kalshi is that some help is on the way, as a recent leak showed that Coinbase was preparing to launch its own prediction markets hub via a similar partnership with Kalshi.
Robinhood unveiling new UX ahead of Thanksgiving
The news comes just a few days after Robinhood revealed that it has begun aggressive updates to its prediction markets hub interface, making it look and feel “more like a traditional sportsbook” just in time for a massive Thanksgiving slate of football games across the NFL and college football.
On Nov. 17, Robinhood also rolled out 24/7 trading for event contracts.
How soon will Robinhood launch its own event contracts?
The new venture is expected to begin operations in 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. Until then, Robinhood will likely continue its current arrangement, even as it builds the platform designed to replace it — and compete directly with the very exchanges it currently feeds, plus a growing number of competitors.
Crypto.com is rapidly expanding its offerings via FCMs, having already launched on Underdog Sports and recently inking deals with Fanatics, Truth Social, Hollywood.com, and MyPrize sweepstakes casino.
Meanwhile, sportsbook behemoths FanDuel and DraftKings are working on their own prediction market products, FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions. DraftKings acquired Railbird Exchange, and will be using Polymarket’s clearinghouse, but FanDuel has linked up with CME Group to house the company’s event contracts on a standalone FanDuel prediction market app.
Not to mention Polymarket’s imminent U.S. return and alliance with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
It’s an arms race, to be sure. The platforms will compete to provide the best products and user experience, and they will also fight for FCM access across different platforms with massive audiences. For traders, that likely means more venues, more contracts, and better UX as the growing number of companies jockey for position to become the default gateway to prediction markets for the next wave of retail users.
