As many prepare for what is speculated to be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s final keynote at Jackson Hole at 10 a.m. ET today, prediction markets are buzzing. Bets are on who will be Trump’s next pick as Fed Chair, with candidates who have expressed more crypto-friendly policies taking the lead.
As of Friday morning, Kalshi markets place Christopher Waller in the lead at around 32¢ with an implied probability of 31%. At time of writing, Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are neck and neck, both priced at around 19¢ (19%). All three politicians have recently expressed growing interest in the cryptocurrency industry and its potential as it continues to play a major role in US politics.
Over the years, Powell maintained a generally cautious but open stance on crypto, recently emphasizing that the sector has matured. While Powell’s crypto sentiment could influence the market’s expectation for the next Fed Chair, Trump’s potential pick would likely display a more crypto-friendly approach compared to Powell’s more conservative stance.
Prediction market odds flip: Waller now in the lead
Prediction market odds on Kalshi have drastically flipped in the past two months. Warsh’s chances fell by more than 39% from a high of 56.9% in the beginning of June. Hassett’s odds have also seen significant movement, surging drastically to 53.1% on August 7, but then dipping to 19% as of Aug. 22.
Similar sentiment is shared on an open market on Polymarket; however, the top bet there sees Trump not making a decision by December 31, priced at 38¢ with a 37% probability. This is followed by Waller, priced at 33.5¢ (32%), Warsh at 10.7¢ (10%), and Hassett at 9.7¢ (9%).
A recent CNBC article revealed speculation that Trump will nominate Hassett, who is also the President’s top economic advisor, as the next Fed Chair. However, based on a cited survey, sentiment for who Trump “should” pick vastly differs, with Warsh and Waller taking the lead.
Crypto-friendly next fed chair candidates compared
Cryptocurrency has been a key focus during Trump’s current presidency. As conversations continue to loom over who he will choose as the next Fed Chair, it would not be surprising if the selected candidate is inclined toward more crypto-friendly policies.
Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 on Thursday, Waller noted that decentralized finance (DeFi) technology is not something the government should be afraid of. The politician has also embraced stablecoins, stating that they are “an important innovation for the crypto ecosystem with the potential to improve retail and cross-border payments.”
Speaking with Prediction News, Slava Demchuk, the CEO of compliance firm AMLBot, highlighted that while Waller was not a “crypto flag-waver,” his previous actions have portrayed a healthy enthusiasm for the industry.
“If he is to become the Fed’s next chair, his attitude is inclined towards being a mixture of pro-innovation and conservative, to encourage stablecoin-issuance with clear rules while preserving the integrity of the system.”
Warsh and Hassett have also expressed positive sentiment toward the crypto industry in recent months. Arguably, Hassett was called one of the administration’s “most crypto-engaged figures” as he worked with crypto policy groups and blockchain think tanks.
“Hassett’s large investment in infrastructure and advisory roles indicate a personal and professional commitment to the sector, and make him an influential figure in shaping US digital asset policy. His participation may lead to innovation-friendly regulations, but creates its own issues regarding conflicts of interest — given his control over policies that are immediately beneficial to Coinbase, said Demchuk.
Hassett disclosed holding a stake in Coinbase worth between $1 million and $5 million, as well as served in paid advisory roles at the crypto exchange, Bloomberg reported back in June.
As opposed to, say, Christopher Waller, who has made public comments around crypto-related risk and benefits, details on Hassett’s views on crypto are comparatively less,” Demchuk continued.
As speculation over who Trump will nominate as the next Fed Chair continues to evolve, prediction markets indicate that whoever is chosen will likely bring in a more crypto-friendly approach, compared to Powell’s more cautious stance.
