New Jersey’s gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli doesn’t appear close. Polls show Sherrill five points ahead, and Kalshi traders give her around an 85% chance of winning the election. While Sherrill may be ahead, she faces an opponent who has defied polls before.
Sherrill’s odds dipped from 88% to about 76% after an Emerson College poll showed a tied race, and Ciattarelli briefly gained traction after Sherrill’s military records were released. The records showed she did not walk at graduation from the Naval Academy after she declined to turn in other students following a cheating scandal.
The scandal didn’t stick, and now prediction markets suggest that Sherrill is on track for a clear victory. However, Ciattarelli has already beaten the polls once, so he could be underpriced. Even if he doesn’t pull out a win, a closer margin than expected could increase his odds before Sherrill’s victory is called, creating potential opportunities for prediction market traders.
Ciattarelli’s previous close run for NJ governor
In his second run for governor in 2021, polls had Ciattarelli behind by about eight points. Some found him as close as four points behind, and another had him 11 points behind the incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy.
However, Ciattarelli went on to lose by only 3% of the vote, a much closer race than polls had projected. Ciattarelli inspired higher turnout in New Jersey’s Republican strongholds while Murphy weathered low turnout in Democratic areas of the state.
In that election, Ciattarelli attacked Murphy over New Jersey’s high property taxes and mask mandates. In response, Murphy touted the phased $15 minimum wage increase, paid sick leave, and taxpayer-funded pre-K programs.
Today, Ciattarelli is still pitching lower property taxes and a new school funding formula. But he is also leaning into culture war issues, including replacing paper and reusable bags with plastic bags. He could have a harder time in the general election with stances like these that may not inspire voter turnout in an off-year vote.
And with the way polling is going at this stage, Sherrill could actually be the candidate who beats the polls this time.
Polls still favor Sherrill but traders mixed on margin of victory
Kalshi traders are split among several margin of victory outcomes for Sherrill. At present, Sherrill has a 9% chance (9¢) of winning by less than 2%, and slightly higher chances of winning by 2-4% or 4-6% with prices of 13¢ and 12¢ respectively.
Prices are in that same range or slightly higher for margins up to 12%. Traders in this market also give her a 16% chance of losing. Here’s a look at current pricing and implied odds as of Thursday morning:
Even though Sherrill appears on track for victory, traders are unsure about how commanding a lead it will be. Traders give her a 66% chance of outperforming the final Real Clear Polling average on Election Day. Her current average is a 3.2-point lead, and several markets give her a reasonable chance of winning by at least four points.
So, it’s possible that Sherrill instead of Ciattarelli outperforms polling expectations on Tuesday.
Ciattarelli faces an uphill battle, running the final days of his campaign during a government shutdown and in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, which have proven unpopular even among some Republicans. In a rare show of dissent, five Republican senators joined Democrats to denounce Trump’s tariffs in a Senate resolution passed on Tuesday.
Ciattarelli ran in part on affordability issues in 2021, but his alignment with Trump in the current economic climate could hurt his chances on Election Day.
