Coinbase Preparing Prediction Market Launch With Kalshi

Unearthed non-public web pages suggest the popular crypto exchange is gearing up to offer Kalshi markets, possibly beginning in December

Coinbase Preparing to Launch Kalshi Prediction Markets
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Coinbase, the popular U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, appears to be preparing to launch Kalshi prediction markets on its platform. A renowned digital detective has discovered non-public Coinbase pages that seem to show what the prediction markets will look like, along with an FAQ section that provides some operational details.

Jane Manchun Wong posted screenshots of the prediction pages she discovered on her X account, where she describes herself as a “hacker turned builder, blogger & consultant.” A 2019 BBC story about the then-23-year-old Wong called her “the woman scooping Silicon Valley,” a reference to her ability to discover new features before the tech media. Wong’s scoops have included new-feature reveals that eventually surfaced at major platforms like Instagram, Spotify, Uber, and AirBnB, among many others.

Prediction markets part of Coinbase’s “everything exchange” ambitions

Coinbase has made its prediction market intentions known previously. Over the summer, Coinbase’s vice president of product, Max Branzburg, shared with CNBC the company’s plans to become an “everything exchange,” with new features to be rolled out in the U.S. in the coming months.

“We’re building an exchange for everything,” Branzburg said. “Everything you want to trade, in a one-stop shop, on-chain. … We’re bringing all assets onchain — stocks, prediction markets, and more. We’re building the foundations for a faster, more accessible, more global economy.”

Wong shared screenshots Wednesday purporting to show how Coinbase’s stock trading pages will look.

Last week, Kalshi announced a partnership with Coinbase subsidiary Coinbase Custody, which will store all of the USDC that’s used on Kalshi for deposits, trades and payouts.

“With Coinbase Custody safeguarding USDC on Kalshi, participants can trade confidently knowing their funds are held in a regulated, secure, and transparent environment,” Kalshi said in the announcement.

Preview of Coinbase prediction offerings

Another Coinbase subsidiary, Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc., is registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The FCM status allows Coinbase to partner with a Designated Contract Market (DCM) like Kalshi to offer CFTC-regulated prediction markets on its platform.

The screenshots Wong shared showed a Coinbase “Predictions” page that features sections for sports, elections, financials, crypto, and more. A sample market for “Will Trump release any of the Epstein files?” resembles the same market offered on Kalshi and appears to be very recent, reflecting the big odds swing towards “Yes” over the past couple of days.

In the fine print on the screenshots Wong shared, it says “Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets through KalshiEX LLC.”

A “Prediction FAQs” section in the screenshots outline some of the basics of prediction trading, as well as a few more detailed aspects of the apparently forthcoming product. To participate, users will need a Coinbase account and be onboarded to Coinbase Financial Markets, which includes identity verification and “basic income/net worth details.”

One FAQ provides details on how to fund accounts for prediction market trading on Coinbase:

“You can use the cash (USD and USDC) in your main Coinbase account to trade. Cash held for positions will be moved to your derivatives account. When you close positions, freed up funds will be transferred back to your main Coinbase account.”

Coinbase prediction markets could launch in December

Prediction markets and crypto have been intertwined since the start of the current booming era of event contract trading. Prediction market leaders Polymarket, which is built on the Polygon blockchain, and Kalshi have of late been announcing a flurry of partnerships with cryptocurrency companies as they compete for crypto-focused customers.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong made headlines last month when, at the end of the company’s Q3 earnings call, he said he was distracted because he was “tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call.” He then tipped the scales, rattling off keywords from the mention market — “Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3.”

A launch date for Coinbase’s prediction markets hasn’t been confirmed by the company. But Coinbase announced yesterday that details of a “system update,” including “exciting product announcements,” will be shared live on X on Dec. 17 at 2 p.m. PST.

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