The largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume in the United States, Coinbase, is ready to dominate consumer markets by launching a so-called “everything app.”
The Base App, which has now replaced Coinbase Wallet, combines social media, trading, payments, and mini-apps. Additionally, the app will include a chat function where users can place “friendly little bets” within the social network via an AI agent chat that can create market and settle payments, potentially paving the way for prediction markets to go even more mainstream.
During the app’s announcement, at the Coinbase “A New Day One” event, Senior Director of Engineering for the Base App, Chintan Turakhia, said:
“I’m scrolling my feed and I see a post from my friend Kevin supporting the Dodgers. And I just need to call him out in our group chat…so I decide to make a friendly little bet with him and all my buddies that Ohtani can’t keep up his great home run streak this weekend when they play. So, I ask the online agent: ‘… Create a market if Ohtani will hit a homer this weekend.’ And naturally, I want to up the stakes by posting it to my feed. Everyone should be able to participate.”
The Base app: A catalyst for mass prediction market adoption
At its core, the Base App seems to be the perfect place for prediction markets, which are still in their early stages of expansion but show great potential for growth, especially in the blockchain space. The largest prediction market exchange, Polymarket, is built on the blockchain and poised for more growth with a clear path back to serving U.S. customers now in sight.
Speaking with Prediction News, Turakhia says that the app is designed to be “the one app you open for nearly everything,” making it easier for users to seamlessly interact with prediction markets in their day-to-day lives.
This is because the app runs on the blockchain and uses open protocols, making ownership decentralized and allowing developers to plug their own apps directly into the experience. Such an approach allows for frictionless integration of prediction markets into users’ social lives, essentially transforming the way people interact with betting and forecasting.
While the Base App certainly shows promise, the true impact of its design remains to be seen.
Crypto also key for mainstream adoption
The app’s combination of social features, payments, and chat creates a great environment for prediction markets to truly take off among mainstream users by making them accessible to everyone on their timeline.
However, the AI agent within the Base App could essentially act as “a front-end to Polymarket,” which could significantly limit its impact for the time being, Ryan G, a research analyst at Messari, says.
“Peer-to-peer prediction markets have historically struggled with liquidity. Onit, an AI agent on the Base App, tackles this by enabling users to create custom markets seeded through ‘friendly little bets’ with friends. By turning prediction markets into a social experience, Onit helps drive initial liquidity while making the concept more approachable for casual, non-power users.”
“In adjacent industries like sports betting, users are already comfortable downloading dedicated apps to place bets, so embedding markets into chat may not be a game-changer on its own,” he adds.
According to G, the real potential could lie in Base App’s ability to make crypto funds more accessible to mainstream users, lowering the barriers to entry for prediction markets by integrating seamless crypto payment options.
On a July 24 podcast from Ark Invest, hosts suggest that the Base app could potentially rival platforms like Robinhood thanks to “a more crypto-native experience.”
Robinhood, as well as Webull, already partner with CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange Kalshi to offer some select future event contracts (prediction markets) to a wide swath of retail traders and investors. The Base app could drive the next phase of event contracts exposure as the platform also attempts to accelerate mainstream crypto adoption.
Expanding beyond traditional markets
Prediction markets broke out in 2024 by venturing into previously untapped areas, especially politics. According to Messari’s G, in order for them to sustain such momentum, they might need to delve beyond the comfortable, like sports betting, and enable “novel, consumer-driven markets.”
These could include unique and unconventional markets that engage a broader audience, especially if tapped into trending cultural moments.
As the Base App continues to roll out, its ability to incorporate prediction markets into everyday activities could transform how people think about forecasting and betting. However, whether it manages to bring prediction markets to the mainstream could depend on its ability to capture the imagination of a wider audience and overcome the inherent challenges of adoption, regulation, and market trust.
