Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the founder of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in terms of daily trading volume, Binance, is allegedly seeking a pardon from US President Donald Trump in relation to allegations of money-laundering violations, for which Zhao has already spent four months in prison.
Prediction markets see Zhao’s pardon as a highly likely possibility. The CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi gives Zhao a 23% chance for a pardon by the end of the year, with “yes” contracts currently priced at 27¢. Sentiment is similar on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, with Zhao seeing a 24% probability of a pardon in 2025 priced at 25¢.
Trump pardon market odds
In 2023, the Binance founder was sentenced to four months at a correctional facility in California, after having pleaded guilty to violations related to the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and failure to comply with an effective US anti-money laundering scheme. Following a $4.3 billion settlement that was paid out last year, Zhao stepped down from his position as Binance CEO and is now seeking a pardon from Trump.
Today, I stepped down as CEO of Binance. Admittedly, it was not easy to let go emotionally. But I know it is the right thing to do. I made mistakes, and I must take responsibility. This is best for our community, for Binance, and for myself.
Binance is no longer a baby. It is…
— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) November 21, 2023
Zhao is currently leading the race amid speculation of who Trump will pardon this year on prediction markets, with former US representative George Santos and early Bitcoin investor and entrepreneur Roger Ver also being highly discussed candidates.
Zhao’s high-stakes pardon campaign fuels prediction market speculation
Trump has long been known for granting high-profile and often controversial pardons, from law enforcement hardliners like Joe Arpaio to tax evading Paul Walczak. Zhao could be next in line, as the Binance founder has embarked on a campaign that is pushing Trump for a pardon and could put the crypto exchange back into the US market.
Following his release from prison, CZ has been vocal about his support for Trump, noting that the president “understands crypto.” Meanwhile, the investment firm MGX had used Trump-owned crypto firm World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1, to close a landmark $2 billion deal with Binance.
According to a New York Times the New York Times, the White House received pardon applications from CZ and Binance, which are currently being reviewed.
For prediction markets, recent developments have made Zhao one of the leading contenders in Trump’s 2025 pardon watchlist. Both on Klashi and Polymarket, Zhao’s odds currently outrank other high-profile names with “yes” priced at 27¢ (23%) on Kalshi and 25¢ (24%) on Polymarket.
Other notable figures seeking a pardon from Trump include George Santos, whose “yes” votes are priced at 20¢ (15%) on Kalshi and 16¢ (15%) on Polymarket, and Roger Ver, with “yes” priced at 19¢ (18%) on Kalshi and 15¢ (14%) on Polymarket.
What a CZ pardon could mean, and why it is divisive
While Zhao’s pardon bid has gained traction on prediction markets, it has also drawn sharp criticism from leading Senate democrats who warn it could undermine the integrity of the justice system.
Senators Elizabeth Warren, Dick Durbin, and Richard Blumenthal raised alarm over what they called the “convergence” of Zhao’s pardon application, citing Binance’s recent financial ties to the Trump family.
In a letter filed in May 2025, the Senators wrote:
“The Trump and Witkoff families stand to personally pocket millions of dollars as a result of the deal involving Binance…These circumstances—involving billions of dollars in penalties and foreign investments, presidential family business interests, and the potential nullification of criminal sanctions—demand the highest levels of scrutiny to ensure that our justice system is operating free from inappropriate political and financial influence.”
The Justice Department’s $4.3 billion settlement with Binance in 2023 marked one of the largest corporate penalties in US history.
