NFL Betting Alternatives: Best Football Prediction Market Platforms

All you need to know to bet on NFL and college football at prediction market exchanges like Kalshi.

Prediction markets are exploding just in time for football season, and for NFL fans, they are real alternatives to traditional sportsbooks. Platforms like Kalshi are available in all 50 states, allowing users to trade Yes/No contracts on the outcome of every NFL game no matter where you are in the U.S.

For NFL bettors who already have access to legal sportsbooks, prediction markets are still a viable NFL betting alternative, as they often offer better odds and far superior cash out options if you’re trading live game or NFL futures markets.

In short, prediction markets allow you to bet against other users rather than “against the house.” The mechanics are slightly different than sportsbooks, though, as they put users in a more dynamic, stock-market-like environment.

We’ll walk you through everything you need to know about these NFL betting alternatives and how to trade football prediction markets, helping you make a smooth transition from traditional sportsbooks.

Can you bet NFL games on prediction markets like Kalshi?

Technically, you’re trading sports event contracts, not NFL betting at Kalshi. Functionally it’s similar to sports betting, but legally it’s regulated as futures on events

And instead of placing a “wager” with a sportbook, you buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts on a specific event which facilitates a trade with a user on the other side.

For example, this is what NFL betting at Kalshi looks like:

If you think the Chiefs will win, you can buy ‘Yes’ contracts on Kansas City, or ‘No’ contracts on Los Angeles; both are the same. If you think the Chargers will win, you buy ‘No’ contracts on Kansas City, which is the same as buying ‘Yes’ on Los Angeles. Each contract pays $1 if your prediction is right and $0 if it isn’t; your profit is the difference between your buy/sell prices minus fees. Rather than odds, you will find teams and outcomes priced between 1¢ and 99¢, which conveniently convert to implied probabilities (50¢ = 50%).

Where is Kalshi is legal?

This is a major advantage of prediction markets. Because they are regulated as financial exchanges, Kalshi NFL betting is available nationwide, including large markets where traditional sportsbooks are still restricted, like California, Texas, and Florida.

Why Kalshi is legal?

Because Kalshi is a federally licensed Designated Contract Market (not a sportsbook), NFL betting at Kalshi falls under the purview of the CFTC, which regulates event contracts, instead of state gaming regulations. This regulation provides a layer of security and legitimacy that you won’t find at offshore sportsbooks or unregulated prediction (of which there are many). You can find our list of legal and regulated prediction market options for the NFL season further down this page.

What NFL markets are available at prediction markets?

Kalshi’s Pro Football prediction market hub breaks down into several familiar categories, mirroring many of the popular items you’d find at sportsbooks. As of this season you’ll find the following Kalshi NFL betting markets:

Game Winner (moneyline style): Trade Yes/No on who wins the game. These move in real time as the game unfolds.
Spreads & Totals: Contracts that mirror sportsbook staples (e.g., “Will Team A cover –3.5?” or “Will the total go Over 43.5?”).
Player Props: To kickoff the season, you’ll find touchdown prop markets, but we expect other props to roll out soon as NFL betting at Kalshi grows. You can find a wider range of props on NoVig.
Futures: Super Bowl champion, conference/division winners, win totals, exact wins, and more. Prediction markets allow you to buy low and sell high, turning NFL futures into real-time stocks that you enter and exit.
Draft & Off-season: First overall pick, position-by-team scenarios, and other offseason storylines make NFL betting at Kalshi unique.
Miscellaneous: You can also speculate on in-season trades, starting quarterback jobs, and early Super Bowl props such as who will headline the Super Bowl halftime show?

Best NFL trading sites (legal options)

Kalshi (nationwide exchange): The flagship U.S. prediction-market exchange that brought you event contracts and legal election markets is rapidly expanding its sports categories. Trade moneylines, spreads/totals, futures, awards, and more—with the ability to post maker (resting) orders and sell anytime pre-settlement in Kalshi’s NFL betting markets.

Pros: Regulated, liquid markets (easy to place bets), no limits, Discord community, fun niche sports-adjacent markets (.e.g., Who will have a Super Bowl commercial?)
Cons: High fees, many prop markets are missing, and the app is difficult to use compared to desktop.

Sporttrade (state-licensed sportsbook exchange): Before there was Kalshi, there was Sporttrade. Founder Alex Kane has been paving the way for sports prediction markets in legal betting states like Colorado, Arizona, New Jersey, Virginia and Iowa. If you’re in one of those states, give Sporttrade a shot.

Pros: Regulated in certain states, low fees (best odds and value for sports bettors), user-friendly app.
Cons: Only available in a handful of states, fewer novelty markets that are available on Kalshi.

NoVig (sweepstakes-based sports prediction market): NoVig offers a peer-to-peer, order-book experience under a sweepstakes model (not a CFTC-regulated exchange). It’s widely accessible in many states with play-for-prizes mechanics (coins/cash), though availability can change as state policies evolve.

Pros: Regulated as sweepstakes platform, an excellent app and UX that is much more like a sportsbook, boosts and promos, and can play for fake cash or purchase NoVig cash which can be redeemed for real money.
Cons: Some markets lack liquidity, including in-game, relative to betting the NFL on Kalshi.

Brokerage integrations: Some brokerages have piloted access to event contracts through exchange partnerships with Kalshi. If offered in your account, this can be convenient but comes at a cost of exorbitant, impossible-to-beat fees. We suggest signing up for NFL betting at Kalshi or NoVig instead.

Pros: Convenient and simple UX that you are already familiar with.

Cons: Brokerages add additional fees, which cut into the odds and make it more difficult to profit.

Play money platforms:

Manifold: A free, play-money site that mimics prediction markets. Great for practicing market mechanics; virtual balances are for learning, not cash-out.

Pros: Active community, fake money allows you to keep track of your predictions, excellent for long-dated predictions, create-your-own markets and ask your own questions.

Cons: No way to win real money, fewer traders, and less reliable forecasts.

What to avoid if you’re in the U.S.:

Offshore, unregulated sites for real-money wagering. Stick to platforms that are federally regulated (like Kalshi) or state-licensed (like legal sportsbooks/exchanges).

How is NFL betting at Kalshi different from sportsbooks?

You trade against people, not the house. Kalshi is an exchange where users post bids/asks; the platform doesn’t win by users losing. Its profits come from small trading fees.

There is a caveat: For some of Kalshi’s NFL betting needs, the company outsources market-making to institutional market makers, which many argue negates the peer-to-peer feature touted by prediction markets.

Transparent odds: A price of 63¢ implies a 63% probability. No American odds conversion required (though you can change your setting to resemble sportsbook odds).

Kalshi’s one-cent pricing ticker, however, comes with limitations. For example, if you’re looking at longshot futures, implied odds are maxed out at +9900 (1¢) with the next price point (2¢) at only +4900. That omits a huge range of payouts.

Live trading and easy exits. You can sell at any time before settlement to lock profit or limit your risk. There’s no need to ride every ticket to the final whistle, and the live cash outs are often much more fair than those provided by sportsbooks.

Cashing out requires liquidity on the other side, but so far, there has been plenty of live trading on Kalshi’s sports markets.

Fees vs. vig. Instead of vig baked into the lines (e.g. -110), Kalshi charges a small fee on expected earnings and (for certain sports markets) a reduced maker fee if your resting order gets filled.

The fee formula is complex and is subject to change, making it difficult to know exactly what to expect. In some cases, the fees are just as expensive as the vig you find at sportsbooks.

No pushes. Because these are binary contracts, there are no pushes on Kalshi (but this may vary by platform).

The line you trade is always at a half-point on spreads/totals, resolving cleanly to $1 or $0, unless you cash out before the market resolves.

How to bet on NFL games and player props at Kalshi

If you’ve ever placed a sportsbook wager, NFL betting at Kalshi will feel mildly familiar: browse the football board, pick a side, place an order. The key difference to reiterate is that you’re buying $1 Yes/No contracts where price = probability, you can post limit (maker) orders to name your price, and you can exit anytime before settlement. Use this quick playbook to sign-up and make your first Kalshi NFL betting trades: Create and verify your account (18+). Standard KYC applies. Deposit funds. ACH deposits/withdrawals are typically free; card deposits usually carry a fee, and card withdrawals may have a flat fee. Wires and crypto may be available with their own processor costs. Find NFL markets. Go to Sports → Pro Football and filter by Games, Spreads/Totals, Futures, Awards, Draft, Player. Choose your side. Click a market (e.g., “Dallas – Yes” or “Over 48.5 Points – No”), select a side and how many contracts you want to purchase and at what price — this is the biggest difference between what you do at the sportsbook.

You can, however, simply “Buy in Dollars” to make the experience more sportsbook-like:

Pick order type:

Quick order
Limit (maker) order to name your price; your order sits on the book if it’s below or above the current available prices.
Set an exit plan. Like live betting, you can scale out during the game or hold to settlement.

For props, you can find them available on the game page below the winner, spread and total markets.

How do the NFL trading fees work?

As I mentioned earlier, prediction markets charge fees differently than sportsbooks. Instead of “vig” or “juice,” Kalshi charges a trading fee. This is a variable transaction fee on expected earnings and the price at which you are buying or selling.

In plain English: the closer a contract is to 50–50, the slightly higher the fee is.

For many NFL trades, all-in costs land of betting the NFL at Kalshi are around what you’d effectively pay in sportsbook vig, especially if you lean into taker orders on spreads and totals. This certainly could change if competition increases and platforms like Polymarket enter the fold and put pressure on Kalshi to decrease their fees.

For now, though, if you’re value hunting: NoVig and Sporttrade have the lowest fees for sports bettors and traders. But there are tradeoffs that make Kalshi NFL betting more attractive, depending on what features you prioritize.

NFL betting tips for prediction markets

Transitioning from sports betting to trading requires a slight mental shift. Here are some tips to get you started, whether you are NFL betting at Kalshi or another prediction market exchange with sports event contracts.

Don’t be afraid to sell: The biggest advantage of trading is liquidity. If your team goes up by 14 points in the first quarter, the price of your ‘Yes’ contract will surge. You don’t have to wait until the end of the game; if you fear the other team might come back, consider selling some or all of your position to lock in a guaranteed profit.

Personally, this is my favorite part of trading football futures markets, like NFL MVP and the Heisman Trophy Winner, on prediction markets. If you have conviction that someone is undervalued, even if you don’t necessarily think they will win, you can buy shares of them early in the season and make money by selling if their prices increase, as you anticipated.

Hedge and arbitrage: Instead of selling, you can always hedge and possibly arbitrage by purchasing other outcomes. This again is a lot easier, and manageable, on prediction markets.
Trade the news: Prediction markets don’t close or pause when injury news breaks, like you see on sportsbooks. This means you can trade the news, buying a position as soon as key information comes out before other market participants react. If and when the price moves, you can flip your contracts for a quick profit.
Manage your bankroll: This is universal advice. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. A good rule of thumb is to risk only roughly 1% of your total bankroll on any single trade (also see: Kelly criterion).
Set personal limits and stay disciplined: Set clear limits for yourself, avoid chasing losses with bigger trades, and try to avoid trading while impaired. The goal is to stay in the game and make it an enjoyable form of entertainment with the potential for profit.