On Sept. 25, Manifold Markets announced that it would begin offering cash prizes. Manifold will designate select markets “sweepstakes questions.” Those markets must have “high-quality, unambiguous resolution criteria” to be sweepstakes questions.
The sweepstakes questions will have the option to use sweepcash instead of mana, Manifold’s free-to-play currency. However, customers must fulfill certain conditions before they can withdraw cash from their accounts.
According to Manifold’s Substack post announcing its sweepstakes markets, “Users may only withdraw sweepcash once it has been used to win a resolved market. Sweepcash from gifts, bonuses, and exiting a market early will not be eligible for withdrawal until it has been used to win a market.”
Each sweepstakes question will still have the free-to-play mana market available. So, playing with sweepcash that can be redeemed for real money is optional.
The most interesting thing from our sweepcash launch is our presidential odds.
— Manifold (@ManifoldMarkets) September 26, 2024
Manifold's mana market has always given lower odds for Trump than Polymarket. Odds for Trump currently:
Mana: 47%@Polymarket: 49%
Sweepcash: 45%
People expected our sweepcash odds to be somewhere… pic.twitter.com/wGpdu3ay8G
Raising the (sweep)stakes
When Manifold launched, one of its goals was to offer a decentralized prediction platform where customers can create markets with their own questions. The founders believed the market would reward the best question-writers with higher trade volumes.
Manifold’s move into sweepstakes seems to confirm that view. In its Substack announcement, Manifold stated that “sweepstakes markets will be managed and resolved solely by Manifold.” The company itself is determined to ensure that it handles the real-money stakes rather than its users.
However, having a free-to-play market turned into a sweepstakes market is a vote of confidence in the customer who made the market. It will also attract additional traders and attention to the free-to-play market that the user will manage outside of Manifold’s sweepstakes.
Adding a sweepstakes option rewards the platform’s best market makers and creates a new offering, with higher stakes, for all of Manifold’s traders.
