NYC Mayor Election Trading & Odds
Get updated odds and all you need to know to start trading real money on the NYC mayoral election.
Updated NYC mayor odds
NYC mayor election preview
The NYC mayor election has attracted so much attention because of Zohran Mamdani’s upset in the Democratic primary. Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of New York and the establishment favorite. New York City is a reliably Democratic stronghold, so the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, has little to no chance of defeating Mamdani.
Since Mamdani is a self-described Democratic Socialist, ideas like state-run grocery stores with lower prices and free bus plans have grabbed some of the most attention. Mamdani has also forced Democrats across the country to reckon with beliefs that are unpopular in their states, cities, and districts.
Mamdani’s victory may have come out of nowhere, but it was no accident. He learned important lessons from Trump’s victories that he was able to replicate in his primary.
According to a Brookings Institution analysis of his victory, Mamdani:
-Brought new voters into the election
-Convinced younger voters to participate in the election
-Leveraged the latest generation of communication–TikTok and video–to connect directly with voters
Mamdani outmaneuvered Cuomo to get the necessary votes to win the primary on June 24. His victory became official when the final ballots were counted on July 1.
Cuomo launched a mayoral campaign as an Independent and attacked Mamdani for living in a rent-controlled apartment, but he hasn’t blunted Mamdani’s momentum. Incumbent Democratic Mayor Eric Adams has also been unable to mount a serious challenge to either candidate in the mayoral race.
Leading NYC mayoral candidates
Zohran Mamdani (Democrat)
Mamdani is the frontrunner with an 88% chance to win the NYC mayoral race. He managed to bring new voters into the election and displaced a seemingly safe political powerhouse. However, his critics are betting that his proud embrace of Democratic Socialism will undermine him, leaving a small opening that Cuomo or Sliwa could exploit.
Based on Mamdani’s performance so far, it’s unlikely that Cuomo or Sliwa are equipped to do so.
Andrew Cuomo (Independent)
Cuomo was the favorite to win the Democratic primary. He was the former governor of New York and gained national recognition for his briefs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cuomo resigned in August 2021 after the New York Attorney General found that he had sexually harassed 11 women.
The NYC mayoral race was seen as his political comeback. When Mamdani won the primary, Cuomo launched a bid as an Independent. He only has a 13% chance to win the mayoral race.
Any chance that Cuomo has will come from his career of political connections and the wealthy donors lining up behind him to improve his chances against Mamdani.
Curtis Sliwa (Republican)
Related markets
What will Mamdani’s margin of victory be?
Who will drop out of the mayoral race?
To improve Cuomo’s odds against Mamdani, the Trump administration and other high-ranking donors encouraged the other candidates to drop out to avoid splitting votes between Cuomo and other challengers.
After Adams dropped out of the mayoral race, there was speculation that Sliwa might as well. However, he has continued to persevere to remain on the ticket and offer an alternative vision for New York City.
Another dropout looks unlikely, but there is still time for surprises before Election Day.
What percentage of the vote will Cuomo get in the NYC mayoral election?
Cuomo is forecasted to get second place, but there remains disagreement about how much of the vote he’ll get. Kalshi traders think he’ll get about 33% of the vote, landing him in the 30%-34.99% bracket. He’s twice as likely to get this percentage of the vote as he was at the end of September. Traders are becoming more confident in the final outcomes of the NYC mayor’s race.
Where to bet real money on NYC mayor race
Election betting became legal in October 2024, after a judge lifted the remaining stays on Kalshi’s election contracts. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a federal regulator that has allowed a wide variety of political contracts on regulated exchanges. Traders can legally bet on exchanges like Kalshi, PredictIt, and soon, Polymarket. Let’s take a look at what sets each apart.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that paved the way for legal commercial political contracts. It’s great for traders of all skill levels, whether they’re just starting out or are sharp enough to demand precise prices.
PredictIt is the OG of modern political platforms. Founded in 2014 as an academic prediction market platform, it has focused on political and election-related markets for over a decade. It’s a great site for beginner traders, but its impending commercial relaunch will have higher position limits for the pros, too.
Finally, Polymarket is a crypto prediction market platform that is readying its U.S. launch. It saw $3.7 billion in trade volume on the 2024 presidential election, but it also offers many other political markets.
Importance of the NYC mayor election result
The NYC mayor race is already affecting other races. Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races have invoked Mamdani as a boogeyman, warning of high taxes and government theft if their Democratic opponents are elected.
Mamdani will also be an early test for the Democrats before the midterms. With the high-profile mayoral election and two governor’s races, Democrats will be able to acid test messaging they could carry into the 2026 midterms. There will also be some early clues about the kinds of policies Americans are willing to support in a contracting economy.
As potential 2028 presidential candidates watch the NYC mayoral race, they’ll have much to reflect on in how they approach voters when they finally announce presidential campaigns.
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