Election Prediction Markets

Overview of legal election betting in the U.S. and where to start trading real money on local, national and international elections

Election betting is nothing new, but its growing mainstream popularity is, thanks to regulatory clarity in 2025. Political enthusiasts in the U.S. now have multiple prediction market platforms where they can turn their electoral insights into real-money edges.

Election markets provide the added benefit of real-time odds snapshots that can capture voter sentiment or shifts that polls sometimes cannot. You can now legally trade on the 2026 midterms, key House and Senate primary races, and the 2028 presidential election, among others.

Whether you want to learn more about election betting or start trading election markets today, we have you covered.

Explore election markets

The range of election prediction markets available for real-money trading is ever growing. If it’s an official election, there’s a good chance you can find a place to bet on it legally. That even goes for international and papal elections (recall the long-shot selection of the first American Pope, Leo XIV). Here’s a look at the main election categories:

  • 2026 Midterms: Trading is underway on open Senate and House seats, as well as some key primary races and gubernatorial elections. Before specific candidates are determined, you can bet on whether a Democrat or Republican (or Independent) will be the eventual election winner. You can also trade on specific margins of victory, congressional control, and other related questions. Trade on 2026 midterms now.
  • 2028 Presidential Election Winner: In addition to the question of who will be the next POTUS, traders can also put money down on who will run, who will be the Democratic and Republican nominee, victory margin, and even what words candidates will utter during presidential debates (AKA mention markets). Trade on 2028 presidential election.
  • International elections: Look for markets to pop up for major international elections, as well as related markets like will X politician leave office in 2025?

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Where to trade on elections legally in the US

You now have quite a few options for legal election betting in the U.S., and those options are only expanding. Among the most popular regulated election trading platforms are:

  • Polymarket US (launching December 2025)
  • Kalshi
  • PredictIt
  • ForecastEx
  • Manifold (play money only)

The best platform for election trading depends on your goals and what you’re looking for. At present, Kalshi has the best selection of election markets, highest liquidity, and flexibility in terms of trading limits. Polymarket US is expected to compete with Kalshi upon its U.S. return, and with significantly lower fees.

PredictIt is traditionally geared more for academic research purposes, coming with trading limits, while Manifold is a solid site for beginners who want to trade with play money.

Election market strengths

  • Allow political observers to turn election hunches into profitable positions and money-making opportunities
  • Cuts through biased political punditry and lopsided media coverage thanks to aggregation of a wide range of sources, with odds reflecting the wisdom of the crowds
  • Odds update in real time, allowing observers to see quick snapshots of candidates’ chances of winning
  • Trading is simple: You buy either Yes or No contracts for specific questions depending whether you think the event will or will not happen. 
  • Early cashout is easy: Prediction markets behave like stock trading, where you can sell off contracts at any point before winners are declared, as long as there is sufficient liquidity, or someone to buy the other side of the trade you’re trying to make.

FAQ

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

Not always, but polls and prediction markets typically have different strengths and weaknesses, making them great complementary data points. Prediction markets have the advantage of aggregating information (wisdom of the crowds) across many more sources, and the benefit of shifting in real time rather than relying on days or weeks-old polling data.

Is election betting legal in the U.S.?

Yes, election betting is fully legal in the US, as long as the contracts are offered by platforms that are approved and regulated by the CFTC.

How does election trading work?

Election contracts are binary; traders can buy either Yes or No contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢. Winning predictions pay out $1 per contract and losing ones pay out nothing. Typically, the contract price corresponds to the implied odds associated with the outcome.

Can you cash out your election contracts early?

Yes. In fact, a strong benefit of trading on prediction markets is that like stock trading, you can cash out or sell your position any time, as long as there is interest on the opposite side to fill your order.

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