Opinions to Odds: How Beliefs Become Prices
If a forecast wants to know what a group thinks, setting a number between one and 100 on that belief...
Kalshi and CFTC Enter Round 2 in Election Market Standoff
After winning a Sept. 12 District Court case to offer congressional control markets, Kalshi launched them, only to pause trading...
Second Trump Assassination Attempt Fails to Move Election Markets
On Sept. 15 at 1:30 p.m. ET, Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw was notified that the Secret Service had...
Kalshi Election Markets Paused Hours After Launch
On Thursday, Sept. 12, Kalshi launched its congressional control markets after a court victory that morning. Later that day, Kalshi...
Kalshi Election Markets Live Within Hours of Court Victory
Hours after securing a legal win in a Sept. 12 hearing, Kalshi opened its Senate Control Market at 12:15 p.m....
Kalshi Allowed to Launch Election Markets While CFTC Appeals
On Thursday, Sept. 12, the D.C. District Court lifted the administrative stay on Kalshi’s congressional control markets, clearing the way...
Debate Transcripts Reveal Trump’s and Harris’ Priorities
Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’ debate answers show one candidate looking ahead and one looking back. In an analysis of both...
Trump’s Election Chances Hurt by Poor Debate Performance
After Kamala Harris’ strong performance in her presidential debate against Donald Trump, her chances of election improved across prediction market...
How Harris’ $365,000 Handshake Shook Prediction Markets
As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump walked onto the presidential debate stage, Harris walked toward Trump and forced him to...
In 15 Minutes, Prediction Markets Knew the Debate Winner
On Sept. 10, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in their first and possibly only presidential debate. It was...
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