Damon Thayer

Damon Thayer is the Political Director at Prediction News and a leading voice at the nexus of politics and prediction markets. A former Majority Floor Leader of the Kentucky State Senate, Thayer spent more than two decades shaping legislation and strategy in one of the nation’s most politically compelling states.

Thayer has won six elections to the Kentucky Senate, beginning with a special election in 2003. That taught him how to enter a political landscape at a moment’s notice and read the environment in a way that wins campaigns. He now applies that same instinct, combined with his deep knowledge of prediction markets to bring analysis at the cutting edge of research and real-world politics.

Thayer’s expertise extends beyond politics into industries where prediction and risk assessment are central. A longtime consultant in the horse racing world, he advises stakeholders on regulatory strategy and economic development. He is also deeply involved in Kentucky’s bourbon industry, where his contributions earned him recognition from the Kentucky Distillers’ Association and induction into the Bourbon Hall of Fame.

Today, as Political Director at Prediction News, Thayer draws on his legislative experience and industry expertise to break down major political contests, from the New York City mayor’s race to the upcoming midterms. By pairing traditional political analysis with insights from prediction markets, he helps audiences understand not only what’s happening on the campaign trail, but also how public sentiment and market-driven forecasts shape the odds of electoral outcomes. His background in navigating complex legislative issues from the inside gives him a unique vantage point on how prediction markets intersect with politics, policy, and voter behavior.