Signal Gate is upon us.
In case you weren’t aware, Signal is a popular, end-to-end encryption texting app. It’s fine for most of us, but it is not rated for government communications and is susceptible to hacking from both domestic and foreign agents. Federal employees, especially when dealing with sensitive information, use a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility, otherwise known as a SCIF.
Herein lies the issue. The editor in chief of The Atlantic was mistakenly added to a group Signal chat by National Security Adviser Michael Waltz. Also in the chat: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Vice President JD Vance, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Alex Wong, who works under Waltz.
The unmistakable problem is that Hegseth was detailing attack plans against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, down to when American warfighters would be launching the attack.
It’s a shocking breach of national security. And one that has prediction markets like Kalshi wondering: Who could be the first person ousted from President Donald Trump’s cabinet? Let’s break it down.
Howard Lutnick
Businessman Howard Lutnick is the U.S. secretary of commerce and he’s made some, let’s say, controversial claims — like declaring that America has made a lot of bank on the “gold card” program for wealthy migrants which … doesn’t actually exist. Not yet anyway. In any case, if there’s a bear market, Lutnick will be the one to blame.
- Kalshi says: 26%
Pete Hegseth
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is a former National Guard trooper and talking head on Fox News. He now heads the Pentagon — and is at the center of what we’ll keep calling Signal Gate. The markets have ticked up in favor of his ouster since then.
- Kalshi says: 23%
Linda McMahon
Linda McMahon — wife of wrestling magnate Vince McMahon — has a storied career in politics. She was the 25th administrator of the Small Business Administration from 2017 to 2019 and later became the 13th U.S. secretary of education in 2025.
- Kalshi says: 14%
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio is the U.S. secretary of state, a role he’s held since 2025. He represented Florida in the Senate from 2011 to 2025 and ran for president in the 2016 GOP primary. In addition to his duties as secretary of state, he has also stepped in as the acting administrator of USAID and the acting U.S. archivist.
- Kalshi says: 10%
Scott Bessent
Scott Bessent is the current U.S. secretary of treasury and he’s got a significant background in finance. It’s worth noting that he is the highest-ranking openly LGBT person in American history.
- Kalshi says: 6%
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard is a U.S. Army veteran and the Director of National Intelligence. While she had been a democrat, she joined the republican party in 2024.
- Kalshi says: 5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
RFK Jr. is, of course, a scion of the Kennedy clan. He’s currently the head of U.S. Health and Human Services. A known vaccine skeptic, he also claims part of his brain was eaten by a worm, so … there’s that.
- Kalshi says: 2%
Susie Wiles
Susie Wiles is Trump’s chief of staff — and she’s the first woman to hold that role.
- Kalshi says: 2%
Pam Bondi
Pam Bondi is the U.S. Attorney General. She’s broken a lot of ground, including being the first female Florida attorney general elected to office.
- Kalshi says: 2%
Sean Duffy
Sean Duffy is a politician, lawyer, and former reality TV star who’s now the U.S. secretary of transportation. He previously represented Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district in the House from 2011 to 2019. After leaving Congress, he transitioned into lobbying and co-hosted a show on Fox Business.
- Kalshi says: 1%
