As the new Trump administration takes shape, markets are already speculating which officials might not make it to year’s end.
Based on trading odds, here are the top names at risk of stepping down—or being pushed out — ranked by likelihood of departure.
Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth – 52%
A Fox News personality turned Pentagon chief, Hegseth has been a polarizing pick. Critics cite his lack of traditional military leadership experience, while supporters praise his loyalty and media savvy. High turnover odds likely stem from his outsider status and controversial stances on military policy.
Trade Advisor: Peter Navarro – 36%
A Trump-era trade hardliner, Navarro has returned with the same fire. Known for his aggressive stance on China and tariffs, he’s respected in MAGA circles but remains controversial among economists and global partners. His combative style may wear thin in a second-term environment.
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick – 34%
A financier with deep Wall Street ties, Lutnick brings business acumen but limited public-sector experience. As head of Cantor Fitzgerald, his presence reflects Trump’s preference for corporate insiders—but that same background may spark scrutiny in economic turbulence.
Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bessent – 20%
A hedge fund manager and former Soros lieutenant, Bessent’s appointment raised eyebrows. His expertise in global finance is clear, but ideological tension and market volatility could lead to clashes. Traders see some risk of resignation or replacement in the year ahead.
U.S. Trade Representative: Jamieson Greer – 17%
Formerly Chief of Staff to Robert Lighthizer, Greer is a policy-heavy pick with deep experience in trade law. He’s low profile but capable. Still, global trade is volatile territory—especially under Trump—making his position vulnerable to shifts in political winds or diplomatic blowback.
Secretary of State: Marco Rubio – 15%
Once a Trump rival, now serving as top diplomat, Rubio’s odds reflect the delicate balance he walks. Experienced in foreign affairs but known for hawkishness, he may find the role constraining—or be replaced if internal conflicts boil over.
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – 15%
RFK Jr.’s anti-vaccine views have made him a lightning rod. His appointment stunned many, and while it plays well with parts of Trump’s base, it has provoked strong backlash from the medical community. His role is politically combustible—and that’s showing up in the odds.
White House Press Secretary: Karoline Leavitt – 14%
A fierce communicator and Trump loyalist, Leavitt is young, sharp, and combative. Her aggressive style could resonate—or backfire—depending on press relations and scandals. The job has historically seen rapid turnover, and her odds reflect that volatility.
Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard – 12%
The former Democratic congresswoman turned independent has raised eyebrows across the aisle. Her unorthodox foreign policy stances and past flirtations with adversarial regimes may complicate her DNI tenure. If friction with intel agencies rises, she could be sidelined.
Attorney General: Pam Bondi – 10%
A longtime Trump ally and impeachment defense lawyer, Bondi’s odds reflect her closeness to the former president—but also the potential legal landmines facing a second-term DOJ. Internal conflicts or high-profile investigations could spark pressure to exit.
Director of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin – 10%
A staunch conservative and former congressman, Zeldin may face resistance if environmental deregulation accelerates. His background is more political than scientific, which may stir opposition from within the agency—or make him a political lightning rod externally.
