This isn’t science — it’s a rule book bet.
Traders are asking if RFK Jr. (or his team) publicly names a definitive cause of autism by deadline.
We’re pricing the words, not the worldview.
The line right now
“Yes” sits ~18% (about 82% No) on ~$240k volume. Low-probability, high-headline tail risk.
The bar to clear
Counts only if RFK Jr. or an affiliated team explicitly announces a definitive cause. No vibes, no “toxins” fog.
The clock
Qualifying window: Apr. 18 → Oct. 31, 2025 (11:59 p.m. ET). Miss it and it’s No by rule.
What won’t fly
Correlations, hedges, “could be” language, or postdeadline reveals. The market wants an on-record causal claim.
Catalysts to watch
A staged presser, a report drop with causal phrasing, and fast mainstream corroboration echoing that claim.
Dampeners
Layered wording, internal pushback, or PR cleanup that keeps everything non-definitive. Price drifts back.
Tape-reading
Expect rumor spikes; a durable move needs explicit language and coverage that matches the resolution text.
Reality check (science)
Decades of large studies: vaccines do not cause autism. Any contrary claim gets shredded on contact with evidence.
How this likely resolves
Given the “definitive cause” standard, the path to Yes is narrow. Ambiguity defaults to No.
Prediction
Absent a direct, on-record declaration before Oct. 31, No stays the heavy favorite. Trade the wording, not the wish.
