Users on the prediction market platform Kalshi are predicting who the next Democrat power-player will be to endorses Zohran Mamdani, the democratic‑socialist Assembly‑member who just shocked the establishment by winning the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. The contract lists a handful of possibilities, but the biggest ones are: Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, Gov. Kathy Hochul, and Sen. Chuck Schumer.
With November closing fast—and with scandle-riddled incumbent Eric Adams running as an independent—their nods could do a lot to build upon Mamdani’s current momentum.
Here’s a closer look at that status of each endorsements from the big names.
Barack Obama
- Why he might endorse: Obama broke precedent in 2013 by endorsing Bill de Blasio for the same job, praising a “bold, courageous” progressive agenda. That history shows he is willing to weigh in on a New York mayoral race when he sees a national message at stake.
- Why he might not: Obama has so far stayed out of 2025’s intraparty fights and could see little upside in aligning with a candidate Republicans label “too far left.”
- Market vibe: Traders give the former president the a 48% chance of handing out an endorsement.
Kamala Harris
- Why she might endorse: As vice‑president, Harris has already waded into big‑city politics—she and President Biden endorsed Karen Bass for Los Angeles mayor in 2022, even flying west so Harris could swear Bass in. That precedent suggests Harris is comfortable putting her imprimatur on municipal progressives she trusts.
- Why she might not: Harris is positioning herself for a 2028 White House bid; backing a democratic‑socialist who is drawing fire from Wall Street donors could hand Republicans an attack line.
- Market vibe: Odds sit in the 40s—high enough to matter, low enough to reflect Harris’ national calculations.
Gov. Kathy Hochul
- Why she might endorse: As state governor and head of the New York Democratic Party, Hochul has every institutional reason to unite the ticket and avoid a replay of 2024’s down‑ballot disaster.
- Why she might not: Hochul has already declined to intervene in New York City’s intra‑party drama this year, even when facing calls to remove indicted Mayor Adams—telegraphing caution about stepping into city politics. She also recently side-stepped the question of an endorsement as recently as a few days ago.
- Market vibe: Traders see her endorsement as roughly 75%; if she jumps first, others could quickly follow.
Sen. Chuck Schumer
- Why he might endorse: The Senate Majority Leader is a Brooklyn political lifer who normally champions home‑state Democrats.
- Why he might not: Schumer has explicitly said he is “not going to make an endorsement” in this race—yet. He may prefer to keep his caucus focused on Washington battles and let New York voters decide on their own.
- Market vibe: 72% that the senate minority leader eventually gives in and hands out an endorsement before November 4.
What’s Next?
Prediction market traders are effectively handicapping the institutional acceptance of Mamdani’s left‑populist agenda. For now, we wait for the campaigns to pick up in what may be one of the most interesting mayor races ever. Will Andrew Cuomo officially drop out or continue to run as an independent? Will Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa move over to pave a viable path for the controversial Democrat-turned independent Eric Adams?
Election Day is November 4, 2025. Take a seat and get your popcorn ready for fireworks.
