With the recent passing of Pope Francis, attention turns to the College of Cardinals as they prepare to elect the next leader of the Catholic Church.
Predicably, pun perhaps intended, markets are curious about who could take the throne next.
Here’s what we’re lookin at.
Pietro Parolin – 36%
The Vatican Secretary of State and top diplomat, Parolin is the consummate insider. Known for his steady hand and deep experience in global Church affairs, he represents continuity and institutional stability, appealing to cardinals seeking a smooth transition after Pope Francis.
Luis Antonio Tagle – 27%
Beloved across Asia and beyond, Tagle is warm, pastoral, and media-savvy. Currently serving in a top evangelization post in Rome, he embodies the Church’s global future. Seen as a bridge-builder with Francis-like compassion, he’s a top pick for reform-minded electors.
Péter Erdő – 8%
Hungary’s top cardinal and a respected canon law expert, Erdő brings intellectual authority and strong traditional leanings. Though less charismatic, his steady leadership and European presence appeal to conservative factions seeking theological clarity and discipline.
Other – 8%
This wildcard category covers all unlisted or emerging contenders—rising stars, regional cardinals, or compromise choices if top names stall. Often overlooked, “Other” has a history of producing surprise outcomes in conclaves when front-runners divide the vote.
Peter Turkson – 6%
From Ghana, Turkson is a leading African voice in the Church. Known for his advocacy on climate change and economic justice, he’s respected globally. His progressive views on social issues and global South roots offer a compelling blend of tradition and reform.
Matteo Zuppi – 5%
Head of Italy’s bishops and a champion of peace through dialogue, Zuppi is seen as pastoral and pragmatic. With ties to the Sant’Egidio community, he balances social justice with liturgical sensitivity, appealing to Francis-style progressives and Italian insiders alike.
Marc Ouellet – 3%
A seasoned Vatican official from Canada, Ouellet once led the department overseeing bishop appointments. Though once a strong contender, recent controversies and age may dim his chances. Still, his doctrinal orthodoxy keeps him in the conservative mix.
Robert Sarah – 3%
A hero to traditionalists, Cardinal Sarah is fiercely devoted to liturgical tradition and moral clarity. His writings are widely read, and his quiet strength appeals to those wanting a return to a more structured, orthodox Church.
Christoph Schönborn – 2%
Archbishop of Vienna and a key editor of the Catechism, Schönborn is wise, diplomatic, and deeply respected. He’s often seen as a unifier but may be viewed as more of a stabilizer than a visionary for the next era.
Raymond Burke – 2%
An American hardliner and outspoken critic of Pope Francis, Burke commands loyalty among traditionalists but is divisive. Though unlikely to secure broad support, his candidacy reflects the deep ideological rifts within the modern Church.
