The next papal conclave is set to begin on Wednesday, as the 135 members of the College of Cardinals convene to select Pope Francis’ successor.
Of those 135, 108 were appointed by Francis, which has implications for who will be chosen during the highly-secretive process. Who is chosen—their background, theology, and approach—will also impact what name they choose to represent.
The process itself is steeped in tradition, secrecy, and spiritual significance. Once a candidate achieves a two-thirds majority, the newly elected pope will choose a papal name, which often reflects his spiritual aspirations and/or honors predecessors or saints whose missions they want to emulate.
While the conclave’s deliberations are confidential, public speculation abounds—in fact, betting on the pope is one of the oldest known forms of election betting. The centuries-old tradition has been reignited thanks to popular prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Users aren’t just betting on who will be elected, but what name will be chose.
Here are the 10 most-likely names for the new pope, all providing early indicators of the pope-to-be’s intended style and priorities.
John (9%)
A name borne by 21 previous popes, symbolizing continuity and pastoral care, . The name would be fitting for a cadinal like Matteo Zuppi of Italy, who is recognized for his pastoral outreach and alignment with Pope John XXIII’s vision. The selection of this name could emphasize a comittment to compassion and modernization of the Church.
John Paul (8%)
A tribute to both John XXIII and Paul VI, the name “John Paul” was notably used by two 20th-century popes, including the long-reigning and widely admired John Paul II. A conservative pope might revive it to signal continuity with a more traditional theological and moral vision.
Pius (7%)
With 12 popes before bearing the name, “Pius” is steeped in tradition and doctrinal conservatism. Though less likely given the current electorate’s makeup, a hardline conservative could adopt it to emphasize orthodoxy and liturgical rigor.
Leo (9%)
Strong and assertive, the name “Leo” harkens back to Pope Leo I, a towering theological figure and Church defender. A future pope might choose it to project bold, principled leadership amid modern challenges.
Gregory (5%)
The name “Gregory” recalls Pope Gregory the Great, known for his reformist energy and liturgical legacy. A pope focused on church unity and structural renewal—perhaps with pastoral flair—might adopt this name to signal steady administrative reform.
Benedict (4%)
The name of Pope Benedict XVI still resonates. Associated with theological depth, monastic discipline, and cautious diplomacy, it could be chosen by someone like Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy or Cardinal Mario Grech of Malta, figures known for their diplomatic temperament and affinity for continuity.
Francis (3%)
Repeating a reigning pope’s name is rare, but not unheard of. A successor who deeply aligns with Pope Francis’s priorities—such as environmentalism, synodality, and a Church of the poor—might embrace the name to signal a seamless continuation of his pastoral and reform-minded vision.
Paul (2%)
Simple yet meaningful, “Paul” evokes the legacy of Pope Paul VI, who steered the Church through Vatican II and its aftermath. A moderate or bridge-building pope might select it to emphasize dialogue, modernization, and fidelity to the Council’s spirit.
Clement (1%)
There have been 14 Popes named Clement, the most recent in the 18th century. The name suggests gentleness and reconciliation—traits that could appeal to a pope aiming to heal internal divisions or global fractures in the faith.
Innocent (1%)
It hasn’t been used since 1724, “Innocent” but was once associated with powerful medieval papacies. Don’t count on its resurgence.
