America adding territories took off under what’s called Manifest Destiny — in short order, it was the belief that the country needed to expand both in terms of geography and the “American way of life.” We basically thought we had a divination from God to go forth and conquer. Not always nicely.
No matter how you feel about it, it happened. Over the course of about 200 years, we cranked the original 13 colonies up to 50 states (those are the stars on the Stars and Bars), with the final one being Hawaii. It’s wild to think about how much changed between Delaware signing on in 1787 and Hawaii joining in 1959.
Now, with President Donald Trump making some rumblings about claiming Canada and Greenland as new states of the Union, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are curious about what could actually be the 51st state.
It’s not looking great for any of the options, but here we go.
Canada
Not gonna lie, I enjoy describing Canada as “America’s Hat.” But the country, a vast and beautiful expanse that gained true independence in 1982, probably doesn’t love that. Canadians, I say it with love, I swear.
Regardless, it has been a target of Trump’s recent trade war. He has leveraged severe tariffs against a longtime trade partner. And they’re none too thrilled, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying the most recent round of auto tariffs (a whopping 25%) are a “direct attack” on his country.
So don’t hold your breath.
- Kalshi says: “Any part” of Canada has a 9% chance.
Greenland
There’s an old joke that Greenland isn’t very green and Iceland isn’t very icy, but I digress.
Trump has recently made a play for Ukraine’s rare minerals as part of a deal with Russia to end Putin’s invasion of the country. He seems to be eyeballing Greenland for similar reasons.
Ostensibly under the guide of global security, Greenland occupies an interesting place when it comes to arctic safety, especially with the Russians floating around. As The Washington Post noted, melting ice could provide new shipping routes.
But it also has a ton of rare earth minerals.
- Kalshi says: “Any part” of Greenland has a 5% chance.
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is extraordinarily gorgeous and already has the benefit of being an American territory. I personally try to go a couple times a year, and I’m not alone in loving it — it’s a favorite place for expats.
The major downside is that it tends to get absolutely slapped by hurricanes.
That said, if you go, look for my name at El Bateys in Old San Juan — it’s etched into one of the walls.
- Kalshi says: 4% chance.
DC
Ironically, D.C. — the seat of the free world — is the least likely territory to become a state. Efforts to do so have been stymied by Congress at nearly every turn.
Trump has recently threatened to take the District over.
- Kalshi says: 1% chance
