For decades, the national trend has pointed downward when it comes to crime. Since the early 1990s, rates of murder, robbery, and aggravated assault have dropped by more than half.
The long decline was fueled by everything from smarter policing to changing demographics, better emergency medicine, and a slow shift in how cities addressed violence.
Then came 2020.
The pandemic threw the country into chaos. Schools shut down. Community programs vanished. Police departments pulled back. And violent crime — especially murder — spiked. Homicides jumped by more than 30% in a single year, the biggest surge in modern U.S. history. It felt like the country was sliding backward.
The Pandemic Spike
But the spike didn’t last.
Starting in 2022, violent crime began to fall again. The FBI’s latest full-year data shows murders dropped nearly 12% in 2023. Aggravated assaults and robberies fell too, and rapes were down nearly 10%. The trend is still going. Preliminary 2024 data points to even sharper declines — double-digit drops in nearly every major category.
The Turnaround Begins
So what changed? Experts point to a few things. As the country emerged from the pandemic, key social institutions came back online — schools, after-school programs, court systems, even policing itself. Federal and local investments in community violence prevention also began to bear fruit. Cities like New York, Baltimore, and Atlanta are all reporting major decreases in violent crime this year.
The turnaround was fast enough that some analysts now believe the U.S. is experiencing one of the steepest nationwide crime declines in recent memory.
But you wouldn’t know it from public opinion.
Public Fear vs. Reality
Polls show most Americans still believe violent crime is getting worse. That gap — between perception and reality — has become a political wedge. Some leaders continue to frame the country as lawless, even as the data tells a different story.
That disconnect is powerful. It affects policy, budgets, and how safe people feel in their daily lives. And it’s fueled by a media environment that prioritizes rare, shocking incidents over broad statistical truth.
Safer, Not Safe
To be clear, the U.S. is not crime-free. Some cities and neighborhoods continue to struggle. The trauma of the 2020 spike hasn’t fully healed. And not all communities have benefited equally from the recovery.
But nationally, we are not in a crime wave. We are in a retreat from one.
Data Tells All
The data is unequivocal: violent crime in America is falling — and in many places, falling fast. It doesn’t make for viral headlines. But it’s the truth. And it matters.
Because the first step in making the country safer is recognizing where progress is already happening.
And right now, it is.
